How to prevent the sanitary deconfinement turn to economic and social debacle? For the 27 million assets of French companies, the relief of the return to the freedom to come and go the dispute now worries about the future.
There is no lack of motives. Between mid-March and this week, the number of employees affected by partial unemployment increased from 2 million to… 13! The emergency expansion of this shock device was necessary. It will not be sustainable forever.
In 2008-2009, the American “subprime” crisis had caused us a recession never seen before since the war: -3%. Our unemployment rate has taken almost ten years to recover. Coming this time from China, the coronavirus shock wave strikes even harder. European Commission plans for France a recession greater than 8% by the end of the year !
Certainly, Brussels announces a rebound (around 7%) in 2021. But with a large margin of uncertainty due in particular to the evolution of the pandemic and its intensity, but also to the heterogeneity of its economic impact across the eurozone. Countries with high tourist potential, for example, have much more to fear than the others.
In this disaster-stricken landscape, how can we prepare for the rebound? First sign of hope: mobilization on a European scale. The arrangements made by the central bank, the Franco-German initiative and announcements ofUrsula Von der Leyen to relaunch massively the most exposed sectors (tourism, automobile, trade …) by injecting billions of euros without conditionality, constitute a new shift towards economic AND political solidarity. Nothing like this started 10 years ago.
Rebuild
If confirmed, these measures will help rebuild. They will not prevent bankruptcies and layoffs. For many SMEs, the safeguards in place (partial unemployment, deferral of charges, loans guaranteed by the State, etc.) are not enough to prevent the treasuries from going into the red.
Salvation can only come from above in the face of this unprecedented earthquake. The two ends of the chain will have to mobilize. Elected officials and administrations, on the one hand, to continue assisting businesses in danger. The bosses and their employees, on the other hand, to invent and implement the adaptations of the future. Those that will be in line with new consumer expectations in terms of proximity, robustness, digital and respect for the environment.
Within companies, a boost of imagination and confidence will be necessary. Those who succeed in re-initiating a constructive social dialogue will have a chance of achieving it faster. We are not incapable of this: companies that had access to telework have just demonstrated their adaptability by using it, massively and quickly, to protect themselves from the virus: 7% of French employees used it occasionally at the end of 2019, 30% in April!
Finally, the consumer will have to regain confidence. A matter of psychology as much as of economics. Yes consumption fell 30% in April, household income, thanks to partial unemployment, has been better preserved. But to convince them to use this forced savings, their morale must not falter. The whole paradox is there: to prevent the economy from sinking into the looming crisis, optimism is essential.
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