Daniel Noboa is a candidate in the 2025 Ecuador presidential election. He is facing 15 other candidates,including Luisa González,who is a mentee of former President Rafael Correa. Noboa and González are the clear frontrunners in the election. to win outright, a candidate needs 50% of the vote or at least 40% with a 10 percentage-point lead over the second-place candidate.Noboa’s main rival, González, is a close confidante of former leftist President Rafael Correa, who still has a significant influence in Ecuador’s politics. during the 2023 campaign, Correa supported González.
In October 2023, noboa defeated González in a runoff election that was triggered by then-President Guillermo Lasso’s decision to dissolve the national Assembly and shorten his own term.
After taking power in November 2023, Daniel Noboa launched the Phoenix Plan, a hard-line program similar to that of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. This plan includes declaring a “non-international internal conflict,” militarizing the country, announcing the construction of megaprisons, and increasing the arrest of alleged criminals.
Critics argue that the remedy has been worse than the disease, citing abuses by the Public Force, including the kidnapping, murder, and disposal of four children in a well. January 2025 has been the bloodiest month in Ecuador’s history, with 731 homicides recorded, compared to 119 in 2021. González has criticized Noboa’s policies and demanded explanations for the incident involving the children, but she also promotes hard-line policies.NGO Insight crime questions whether the policies of both Noboa and González will deepen the crisis. Analyst Steven Dudley predicts that violence will likely increase in 2025 due to the rise of fragmented gangs and the consolidation of new illegal economies such as extortion and illegal gold mining.
ecuadors Presidential Election and the Phoenix Plan: An Interview with Expert Analyst Dr. Maria Rodriguez
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As Ecuador approaches the 2025 presidential election, the country is at a crossroads. Daniel Noboa and Luisa González are the clear frontrunners, each bringing their own set of policies and influences. Dr. Maria Rodriguez, a prominent political scientist specializing in Ecuadorian politics, shares her insights with our Senior Editor on the election’s dynamics, the Phoenix Plan, and the potential impact on Ecuador’s future.
The Candidates and the Election Dynamics
Senior Editor: Can you provide some context on the 2025 presidential election in Ecuador? Who are the main candidates, and what makes them significant?
Dr. Maria Rodriguez: The 2025 presidential election in Ecuador is highly anticipated, with Daniel Noboa and Luisa González emerging as the top contenders. Noboa, who defeated González in a 2023 runoff, is now the incumbent president. González, a mentee of former President Rafael Correa, is a close confidante and continues to have significant support. Both candidates have strong backing and represent different political ideologies that could shape Ecuador’s future.
The Phoenix Plan and Its Implications
Senior Editor: What is the Phoenix Plan, and how dose it compare to similar policies implemented in other countries like El Salvador?
Dr. Rodriguez: The Phoenix Plan is a hard-line program launched by Daniel noboa after taking power in November 2023. It includes declaring a “non-international internal conflict,” militarizing the country,constructing megaprisons,and increasing the arrest of alleged criminals. This plan is similar to the policies implemented by Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, wich have been criticized for their heavy-handed approach and human rights abuses.
Criticism and Human Rights Concerns
Senior Editor: How have critics responded to the Phoenix Plan, and what are the main concerns raised?
Dr. Rodriguez: Critics argue that the Phoenix Plan has exacerbated the issues it aims to solve. There have been reported abuses by the Public Force, including the kidnapping, murder, and disposal of four children in a well. January 2025 has been the bloodiest month in Ecuador’s history, with 731 homicides recorded. These incidents highlight the concerns about the remedy being worse than the disease and the potential for further human rights abuses.
The Role of Luisa González
Senior Editor: How has Luisa González positioned herself in response to these developments, and what policies does she promote?
Dr. Rodriguez: Luisa González has criticized Noboa’s policies and demanded explanations for the incident involving the children. However, she also promotes hard-line policies, which raises questions about whether her approach will deepen the crisis.González’s support from Rafael Correa, who still has significant influence in Ecuador’s politics, adds another layer of complexity to her candidacy.
Future Outlook and Predictions
Senior Editor: What are your predictions for the future of Ecuador’s political landscape and the potential impact of the upcoming election?
dr. Rodriguez: Analysts predict that violence will likely increase in 2025 due to the rise of fragmented gangs and the consolidation of new illegal economies such as extortion and illegal gold mining. The policies of both Noboa and González may deepen the crisis, making it crucial for the international community to monitor the situation closely. the upcoming election will be pivotal in shaping Ecuador’s future and determining the country’s path forward.
Conclusion
Senior Editor: thank you, Dr.Rodriguez,for your insightful analysis. Your expertise has provided valuable context and predictions for the 2025 presidential election in Ecuador.
Dr. Rodriguez: Thank you for having me. It’s essential to stay informed about the political developments in Ecuador and their potential implications for the country’s future.
