Spending is rising again and consumer confidence is rising. Is it now one straight line up, out of the valley? Sandra Phlippen, chief economist at ABN Amro, nuances that. “If you dent the economy very hard, you will automatically get something faster afterwards. We will come a long way.”
But reviving our spending is a positive signal. According to Phlippen, the fact that this happened so quickly also has to do with the lockdown in the Netherlands. “We have had a relatively light lockdown compared to countries around us. As a result, part of the consumption has continued, such as shops that were allowed to remain open.”
The length of the lockdown also matters, says Phlippen. The strictest part of the lockdown in the Netherlands has been relatively short compared to other countries (see graph in the series above).
“If you are closed for a long time, customers will pass your business at some point,” says Coen Teulings, economist and former director of the Central Planning Board. That’s why shops and restaurants opened up, even though they couldn’t make a lot of sales with the one-and-a-half meter lines, he says. “You want to get the course of your customers back as soon as possible.”
Aid package
Whether we continue to spend enough, and whether the turnover of companies will rise again, is also related to the government’s support package. “The government is still massively propping up,” says Phlippen. “At some point, it will also have to let go gradually.” It is inevitable that the economy will have to adjust and jobs and companies disappear, says Phlippen.
See which support measures apply now and for how long:
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