US interest rate
American debt (see US 10-year interest rate (US10Y)) is considered a safe haven, because the probability that the US government will default on its debt remains low. It would simply mean the bankruptcy of the entire financial system.
The financial markets have behaved in the opposite direction since the implementation, at the global level, of central bank support plans. Thus, a rise in US rates would be a sign of an upcoming decline in the financial markets. Counterintuitive, this trend would only be linked to the gradual end of measures to support economies, thereby slowing down financial bubbles in assets.
Inflation US
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the US version, is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services. . Indexes are available for the United States and various geographic regions. Data on the average prices of selected utility products, motor fuel and food products are also available.
The CPI USA is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
US Jobs
10 million jobs are to be filled, and no one obviously wants to be a candidate, for one simple reason, these jobs are poorly paid. Salary offers are therefore rising sharply, + 9% on average over the month of November. The unemployment rate could drop to 4.5% of the working population (from 4.6% in October). The average hourly wage is expected to rise, to 5.0% over one year in November. However, this is insufficient to offset the rise in the consumer price index.
Weekly unemployment claims are at a 52-year low. At the start of the year they were at 900,000. Today they are at 200,000. The four-week moving average (which is closely watched by economists) stands at 218,000. That’s a signal. positive for the US Federal Reserve, which is likely to normalize its monetary policy a little faster than expected.
USA Real Estate
U.S. house prices rose 18.5% from the third quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2021 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Home Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 4.2% from the second quarter of 2021. The FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 0.9% from August.
« House price appreciation hit all-time high in the quarterly series Said William Doerner, Ph.D., chief economist in the Research and Statistics Division of the FHFA. ” Compared to a year ago, annual earnings have increased in every state and metropolitan area. House prices rose exceptionally quickly, but market momentum peaked in July as month-over-month gains moderated. »
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