The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Range Forecasting (TsMAKP) presented a “constructive version” of the economic forecast for Russia (.pdf). The analytical note states that the development of the situation with the coronavirus COVID-19 and oil prices “apparently occurs according to the” crisis “, if not the” shock “scenario,” and the Russian economy expects, “with a high probability”, a two-year recession.
The authors believe that the crisis may be more serious for Russia than for the global economy as a whole. “If for most other countries the very drop in oil prices (and, therefore, for fuel) is a stimulating factor, then for Russia the situation is fundamentally different. A decrease in oil prices, causing a contraction in domestic demand, will lead to the fact that a significant part of enterprises quitting personnel for quarantine simply cannot fully reopen (and the longer the quarantine lasts, the more severe this effect will be, ”the analytical note says.
The authors compiled their “constructive version” on the assumption that the priority in economic policy is to prevent unemployment, support incomes, curb inflation and support the ruble, and support investment activity. Even with this scenario, the Russian economy is still facing a recession. However, the recession and its social consequences can be reduced. According to the “constructive” scenario, the fall in GDP will be kept at 2.3–2.5% in 2020 and 0.5–0.8% in 2021. By 2022, the increase should be 0.6-1,%. Compared to the “hard crisis” scenario, the gain will be 0.5–0.8% in 2020 and 0.1–0.3% each in 2021 and 2022.
How the economic situation is assessed in the Central Bank – in the material “b” “Fortune telling on the tear-off calendar.”
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