Bonn (ots) –
In the program “phoenix personal” Theo Koll speaks with Prof. Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, about the economic crisis, lack of willingness to take risks, Germans’ fear of change and the consequences of the US election for global trade.
“There are two gorillas in the global economy, the USA and China, both of which no longer play by the rules or no longer feel bound by the rules to the same extent as was the case before and as we had actually agreed on them “, says the President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy Moritz Schularick. This would cause the “open world economy” to falter. “That means we really have these three big, important pillars of the Federal Republic’s economic success, i.e. the strong industry, the auto industry, mechanical engineering, all of which are no longer doing so well against the background of this new global economy, we have them Questions about world trade, what will happen next, i.e. this open global economy, will be lost. And then we also have to invest a lot more in defense.”
The Chinese and the Americans would prefer to negotiate with each European country individually, said Schularick. “Because then China and America are always huge and every single European country is incredibly small.” In order to negotiate on equal terms and say, “If you subsidize your industries, then that is a violation of the rules and then we have to react to it,” the Europeans would have to stand together. “Europe is the area of resilience that we also have as a German economy.”
With a view to the economic crisis, Schularick demands: “We need a signal of departure, it has to be clear to everyone, we have to take new paths, we have to be much more innovative, we have to become faster, we have to become more entrepreneurial again.” We also have to “roll up our sleeves” in the area of technology. “We are the best in technology of the last century. We are not the best in technology of this century.”
We have become “fearful of change,” Schularick continued. This also has to do with our aging society. “As you get older, you don’t necessarily become more willing to change.” You would always see the risks first. “That bothers me a lot, also in the German debate, in the political one. The two words that appear most often are: preserve and preserve. So, it’s not: turn around, change and make new.”
A reform of the social security systems to make them “future-proof” is out of the question for economist Schularick. “We live in a country in which a third, a third of the federal government’s tax revenue currently goes to pension subsidies. And if you want to have flexibility in the federal budget, if you invest a significant amount in the future, in education, in research and development “If you want to invest in the energy transition and in infrastructure, then if you don’t want to incur new debt, you have to get to that third.”
Regarding the debate about the debt brake, Schularick explains that he is “in the short term in any case” in favor of opening the debt brake “for defense investments.” “I think it’s downright absurd that when it comes to existential questions of national security, we make our ability to act on the international stage dependent on the political constellation surrounding emergency resolutions and majorities. We need the ability to act, especially in the environment that we have now with Trump and the nominations he has proposed for Defense Department and other positions.”
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Original content from: PHOENIX, transmitted by news aktuell
Original message:
**What are the potential consequences of Germany adopting a less export-oriented approach, as suggested by Professor Schularick, considering their reliance on international trade and their position within the European Union?** (This question encourages analysis of a key suggestion from the text and its implications on a national and regional level.)
## World-Today-News Interview: Navigating the Global Economic Shift
**Introduction:**
Welcome to World-Today-News. Today, we’re joined by two distinguished guests to delve into the complex global economic landscape. With rising protectionism, the US-China rivalry, and an increasingly unpredictable world order, understanding the challenges and opportunities ahead is crucial for Germany and the rest of the world.
Our guests are:
* **Professor Moritz Schularick:** President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, offering invaluable insights on global economic trends and their impact on Germany.
* **[Name of second guest]:** [Position/Expertise], providing a contrasting perspective on [Specific area of expertise related to global economics, e.g., international trade, political science, etc.].
Thank you both for joining us today.
**Section 1: The Shifting Global Landscape**
**Moderator:** Professor Schularick, you’ve stated that two “gorillas” – the United States and China – are increasingly flouting the rules of the established global economic order. What are the specific actions that concern you most? What implications do these actions have for a traditionally export-oriented economy like Germany’s?
**Professor Schularick:** [Provides insights into specific actions by the US and China, outlining their impact on Germany’s economy.]
**[Second guest]:** [Responds to Schularick’s comments, offering an alternative perspective on the situation. Perhaps highlighting potential benefits for certain sectors in the German economy or suggesting alternative strategies for navigating this new landscape.]
**Moderator:** How can Germany, and Europe as a whole, ensure its voice is heard in this new geopolitical reality? Professor Schularick argues that Europe needs to “stand together” to negotiate effectively with the US and China. What specific policies or strategies could be implemented to achieve this?
**[Open discussion between guests, exploring potential solutions and challenges to European unity in navigating the global economic changes.]**
**Section 2:
Addressing Germany’s Economic Challenges**
**Moderator:** Professor Schularick, you’ve also highlighted Germany’s need for “a signal of departure” and “to be much more innovative.” Can you elaborate on these points? What specific changes do you believe Germany needs to make to remain competitive in the 21st century?
**Professor Schularick:** [Explains the need for innovation and change, possibly referencing specific sectors or areas where Germany lags behind.]
**[Second guest]:** [Provides their perspective on Germany’s innovation potential and competitiveness. Perhaps highlighting specific strengths or areas for improvement.]
**Moderator:** You’ve also spoken about “fear of change” within German society, particularly in relation to social reforms. How can this fear be addressed, especially when it comes to necessary changes such as pension reform?
**[Open discussion between guests, potentially exploring the social and political factors contributing to a reluctance to embrace change in Germany, and discussing possible solutions.]**
**Section 3: Looking
Ahead**
**Moderator:** Professor Schularick advocates for a temporary suspension of the debt brake to invest in defense. What are your views on this proposal, [Second Guest]? How do you balance the need for investment in crucial areas like defense with fiscal responsibility?
**[Open discussion on the debt brake and different approaches to Germany’s defense and investment strategies.]**
**Moderator:** Looking ahead, what are your predictions for the future of the global economy? What advice would you give to policymakers and businesses navigating this complex and ever-changing landscape?
**[Concluding statements from both guests, offering their insights and advice for navigating the future.]**
**Conclusion:**
Thank you, Professor Schularick and [Second Guest], for sharing your valuable insights. This was a crucial conversation, highlighting the complexities and opportunities facing Germany and the world. We encourage viewers to engage further with these topics and contribute to the ongoing dialogue about shaping a prosperous and sustainable future.
