According to the agency, most analysts expect the global economy to recover in 2022. However, the newspaper notes, there are a number of risks that can hinder growth.
The agency cites the conflict between Ukraine and Russia as one of these factors. If the situation aggravates, gas prices may rise.
Omicron and the world economy
Analysts also believe that if the Omicron coronavirus strain is more infectious and causes an increase in deaths, then this will also negatively affect the global economy. According to experts, the introduction of severe restrictions even for three months can slow down economic growth in 2022 by 4.2%.
Among other factors that can have a negative impact on the global economy, analysts name climate change, which causes devastating weather events. And this can have an impact on food prices.
Inflation risks and the Fed rate
The agency also notes the threat of a sharp jump in inflation. According to the publication, at the beginning of 2021 it was believed that the rise in prices in the United States would not exceed 2%, but now this figure is close to 7%.
The US Federal Reserve System (FRS) is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate in 2022. Such actions of the regulator may negatively affect the emerging markets. Among the countries that may be at such a risk next year, the agencies stand out Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Egypt.
China and Taiwan
As noted by Bloomberg, the Chinese economy slowed down in the second half of 2021. At the same time, China can solve the shortage of energy resources next year. However, Beijing will not be able to solve other problems. At the same time, experts believe that next year the PRC economy may show an increase of 5.7%.
At the same time, the exacerbation of the situation around Taiwan may affect the economy of China, as well as the entire world. As the worst-case scenario, the publication calls the “war of the superpowers” – between the United States and China. However, other scenarios for the development of events in this region will lead to economic problems. For example, the imposition of sanctions will freeze ties between the world’s two largest economies. In addition, such moves could cause the collapse of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, which will negatively affect the release of many products – from smartphones to cars.
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