The AEX ended the trading week on a negative note. The index closed 0.8% lower and has to accept a weekly loss of 1.2%. The AMX also took a step back.
It was option expiration again. This usually causes extra commotion, but on balance the price results were limited. Banking and insurance shares such as ABN Amro (+0.9%), ASR Nederland (+0.6%) and ING (+0.4%) led the way. ASML (-2.6%) followed suit, followed by Philips (-2.4%) and ASMI (-1.3%). Besi (+0.2%), which suffered a merciless beating last week, managed to escape the malaise.
There wasn’t much news. Only Sif came up with figures. This was rewarded with a price increase of 0.7%.
Sif sees more balance in the offshore wind market
It has been known for some time that these are not easy times for the offshore wind market. Rising market interest rates, increased material prices and all the geopolitical unrest are causing significant delays in the development of offshore wind farms. This is a problem for a company like Sif, which makes monopiles for wind turbines.
The numbers that Sif presented this morning corresponded to one’s own expectations. Adjusted Ebitda increased by 1% in 2023 and profit after tax increased by 51.4%. The group processed 192 kilotons of steel: 14% more than the year before.
This year it is expected to be an ounce less. Sif expects adjusted Ebitda to decline by 17% this year and production by 14%. This is partly due to the start-up of the new factory. The first monopiles are expected to leave the production hall in July, but the factory is not expected to be operating at full capacity until January 2025.
This is necessary, because despite the current setbacks, wind energy is expected to continue to play an important role in the energy transition.
… and will focus on ‘green steel’
Sif’s Achilles heel is that the company is completely dependent on one product. To reduce this vulnerability, Sif also wants to focus on recycling scrap from the dismantling of wind turbines, or green steel. This is certainly a growth market in the long term, but does all this offer sufficient potential to include the share in your portfolio? Analyst Peter Schutte’s opinion can be found here.
Sif remains confident in the future
— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) March 15, 2024
Wall Street loses for the third day in a row
Wall Street is down for the third day in a row. This is attributed to last week’s inflation figures, which indicate that an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is unlikely to happen in the short term. Before taking any steps, the Fed wants a clear signal that inflation is convincingly on the way back. To do this, we have to wait for PCE inflation (the figure that the Fed mainly looks at), which will only come at the end of this month, after the next interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Today it was announced that import prices had risen by 0.3% last month, after an increase of 0.8% a month earlier. This figure was no surprise, but neither were this week’s other inflation figures. On Thursday it turned out that producer prices had risen much faster than expected (by 0.6% on a monthly basis, compared to 0.3% the month before and an expected increase of 0.3%).
Tuesday’s inflation was also higher than expected. Instead of stalling, inflation rose from 3.1% to 3.2% on an annual basis. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) fell slightly from 3.9% to 3.8%, but the hope was that this would decline further to 3.7%. On a monthly basis, consumer and core prices rose by 0.4%. All this put pressure on Wall Street at the end of the week, as the Fed targets inflation of 2%.
American macro data provide a mixed picture
Today’s other macro figures gave a mixed picture. American consumer confidence (measured by the University of Michigan) had fallen further. And the Empire State Index (which reflects the confidence of industrial entrepreneurs in the New York region) had deteriorated further than expected. But industrial production had risen slightly, contrary to expectations.
Adobe is trading more than 14% lower after the figures. Turnover rose, but profits fell and the outlook disappointed somewhat.
Long-term interest rates rose sharply this week
Ten-year yields were on the rise this week on the prospect that US interest rates could remain high for longer than we previously thought. The American ten-year interest rate is 4.30%, which is 23 basis points higher than at the beginning of this week. The Dutch ten-year interest rate has risen by 15 basis points to 2.68% over the past five trading days.
The broad market
- The AEX ended 0.8% lower. This means we are doing worse than the surrounding stock exchanges: Bel20 (-0.2%), CAC40 (+0.04%) and DAX40 (-0.08%). This is probably due to the high weighting of ASML
- The CBOE VIX index (volatility) rose slightly to 14.20.
- Wall Street is trading as follows: Dow Jones -0.7%, S&P500 -0.6% and Nasdaq -1.2%
- The euro takes a step back and is trading at 1.0885 dollars.
- The gold price is slightly lower at $2,157.79 per troy ounce.
- Bitcoin is heading to the basement and is down 4.7% at $68,173.28. This means that the price is back around the same level as a week ago.
- Oil prices aren’t doing much. The Brent price is 0.1% higher and WTI is slightly up. On a weekly basis they are up 3 to 4%.
Further on the Damrak
Pharming recovers somewhat, ASML pulls down the AEX
- Basic-Fit (+0.3%) is recovering slightly, but that cannot make up for the share price drop of almost 16% on Thursday after figures.
- The recovery of Pharming (+3.9%) after the price loss of 5% is more substantial.
- Sif was already on the rise prior to the publication of figures and gained another 0.7% today.
- Ebusco is allowed to deliver 12 electric buses in Switzerland, but sees the price drop by 1.7%.
- Onward Medical (+1.8%) presented various plans for 2024. Among other things, the company wants to launch the investigational therapy for arm functions in the US in the fourth quarter of 2024
- For a change, no big price results Vivoryon Therapeutics, which saw two commissioners leave today. The price rose by 0.9%. The biotech share recently went into meltdown after disappointing test results for a candidate drug against Alzheimer’s disease.
- A cut in advice from UBS leaves investors in stitches Shell (+0.3%) cold.
- Ahold Delhaize closed 0.5% lower after being wiped off the buy list by ING.
Chippers had a bad week
On balance, chip stocks have had a very bad week. Index heavyweight ASML lost as much as 7.1%, Besi lost 5.3% and ASMI lost 4.2%. The biggest loser was Basic-Fit, which received no less than 15.8% of the stock market value after the figures presentation.
Banking and insurance shares were in demand, with profits for ING, ABN Amro and NN Group. Commodity-related shares were also in great demand. Shell gained 2.6%, Arcelor Mittal gained 1.4% and Aperam even 4.2%.
Recommendations: advice reductions for Shell and Ahold Delhaize
UBS removes Shell from purchase list and Ahold Delhaize is removed from ING’s shopping list:
- Ahold Delhaize: to €29 from €32.50 and advice down from buy to hold – ING
- ING: to €13.40 from €12.50 and hold – Barclays
- Shell: recommendation downgraded from buy to hold – UBS
- Basic-Fit: to €32 from €33 and buy – KBC Securities
- ArcelorMittal: to €31 from €27 and buy – Deutsche Bank
IEX BeleggersPodcast about interest, inflation, bitcoin and Besi
A special episode of this week’s IEX Investor Podcast: none other than monetary economist and columnist Edin Mujagic is our guest. He follows the Fed and the ECB closely and has a striking opinion about what we can expect from them this year. IEX analyst Martin Crum is also present.
Topics covered: the difficult battle against inflation (and the Hilbert van der Duim syndrome), the impact of interest rates, the Central Bank Digital Currency, the prospects for bitcoin and what exactly happened to Besi?
IEX BeleggersPodcast with economist Edin Mujagic and analyst Martin Crum: Lower interest rates this year is not a race at all – via @IEXnl
— IEX.nl (@IEXnl) March 15, 2024
Agenda Monday: Eurozone inflation
Chinese industrial production will be announced on the night from Sunday to Monday. The Chinese economy has not yet picked up steam since the end of the lockdowns, but industrial production for December offered hope. There was an acceleration of growth and the strongest growth in two years. We’ll see on Monday whether that trend continues.
Furthermore, the final inflation in the eurozone in February could set the markets in motion. The provisional figure indicated a cooling of inflation from 2.8% in January to 2.6% the following month. Will this figure be confirmed or adjusted?
As you can see, inflation has fallen considerably last year, but the 2% desired by the ECB is not yet in sight.
Here’s Monday’s full agenda:
4:00 AM Chi retail sales Jan-Feb
04:00 Chi industrial production Jan-Feb
11:00 am EU inflation February (final)
11:00 am EU trade balance Jan
3:00 PM US confidence in homebuilders in March
…and highlights for the rest of the week
The following days are mainly devoted to interest rate decisions. Japan’s central bank kicks off on Tuesday. On Wednesday it is the Federal Reserve’s turn and the Bank of England will follow on Thursday.
The number of companies providing figures is slowly drying up. We can look forward to the results of Avantium, Eurocommercial Properties, Nike, FedEx and Micron Technology, among others.
And then this:
After empty flats, there will soon also be zombie factories?
Analysts are predicting the emergence of hundreds of zombie factories over the next decade in the Chinese car market as the rapid switch to electric vehicles has stalled sales of internal combustion engine cars pic.twitter.com/EkzdTMIgWi
— Financial Times (@FT) March 15, 2024
Will South Korea become the new Japan?
The South Korean stock market is plagued by a persistent discount. However, Robeco is hopeful that this will disappear if the core problem is addressed: too little income from shares. pic.twitter.com/c8RhayGOq4
— IEXProfs (@IEXProfs) March 15, 2024
You
The western world has a growth problem. The primary culprit? Lacklustre productivity pic.twitter.com/5hVkeCZBi0
— Financial Times (@FT) March 15, 2024
Countdown to the end of negative interest rates in Japan
Substantial wage increases in Japan.
5,28%.
The Bank of Japan will therefore increase interest rates. If it is not next week (19/03), then the meeting after that (26/04). pic.twitter.com/dJxZaTohLC— Corné van Zeijl (@stock analyst) March 15, 2024
???? #ECB’s Vujcic Says Weaker Economy Could Boost Pace of Rate Cuts – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/c2dItG80Pa
—Christophe Barraud???? (@C_Barraud) March 15, 2024
IEX Investor Day with CEOs of Unilever and TKH
The annual IEX Investor Day will take place again on Friday, June 28, in Bussum. An excellent opportunity as a reader of IEX to gain plenty of knowledge and inspiration for interesting investment opportunities.
It promises to be a beautiful and inspiring day! None other than Hein Schumacher, CEO van Unilever, makes its appearance. Also Alexander van der LofCEO of TKH will take the stage. Various investment experts, including Hildo Laman, head of the IEX Investor Desk, will provide you with a lot of background information and buying tips, so you can make better investment decisions.
The presentation is in the hands of journalist Jort Kelder.
Ticket sales are now in full swing. Want to know more about the IEX Investor Day? View the website now.
That’s it for now. I wish you a pleasant weekend!
2024-03-15 18:11:15
#ASML #pulls #AEX #sharp #correction #bitcoin #IEX.nl
