The economic misery index in a country is the sum of the development of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, and the United Nations relies on it to classify countries.
Published on: 01/25/2024 – 15:14
1 minutes
It also appears that it is used in the year preceding the elections to determine who will win in these elections. If the misery index is negative, meaning that the economic conditions are improving, then the winner will be the president in power, and vice versa.
This indicator proved its validity and credibility 14 times out of 16, in the previous presidential elections in the United States.
The two times he predicted incorrectly, the conditions were exceptional, as Carter defeated Gerald Ford even though the misery index was improving, and the reason is that those elections came after the Watergate scandal. The second time the index was wrong was the victory of George Bush over John Kerry in the year 2004, as the index did not favor any of the candidates.
Today, the misery index gives Biden the victor by a large margin, unless economic matters deteriorate further during the few months that separate us from the elections.
2024-01-25 14:14:02
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