In the past week, the koruna weakened slightly and gradually reached the 24.20 EUR/CZK threshold, where it moved after the last monetary policy meeting of the National Bank. This development happened without any significant economic news, when only an economic survey arrived from Estonia last week, which confirmed a slight improvement in the door companies in the economy. However, it continues to move at historically below-average levels, and the mood in Germany is similarly gloomy, where the last advance of the indicator warns of a slow recovery, which some two estimates did not cover. As a result, this should be an argument for foreign investors that the European central banks (both ECB and NB) can be more cautious with further rate setting, which was reflected in the weakening of the euro and the dollar last week, as well as the koruna euro.
This week is interesting from the point of view of economic data, when it loses a stop the detailed result of the Czech GDP for the second quarter in combination with the revision of the first estimate (+0.1% q/q). In the middle, the result of German inflation will arrive, followed on Thursday by the result for the entire Eurozone. Considering the date of the next ECB meeting (September 14), this is one of the last meetings that will be influenced by the decision of the European Central Bank, and the market, as a result of inflation, will continue to monitor it. Market-estimated drop in core inflation rates in the Eurozone from 5.5% to 5.3% could be enough for the European Central Bank to go on hiatus; on the contrary, the result could represent a strong argument for giving outside rates. This would apparently not be appreciated by the koruna, among other things, due to the further annual differential. In the end, the American economy will come to a stop on Friday from the labor market, which will represent a decisive event for the further set of American rates, and here too there may be a significant impact on the global money market.
Author: Vratislav Zmi, analyst
Editor: Helena Horsk, Chief Economist of the Economic Research Team of Raiffeisenbank as
2023-08-28 12:57:20
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