Economic conditions are predicted to improve in the fourth quarter, stocks can be seen

Reporter: Kenia Intan | Editor: Tendi Mahadi

KONTAN.CO.ID – JAKARTA. Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) closed at 6,286,943 at the end of the third quarter of 2021 trading, Thursday (30/1). Sucor Sekuritas analyst Hendriko Gani said the JCI will continue to strengthen in the last quarter of this year.

The good outlook for the JCI is in line with the recovery in economic conditions. This is reflected in this improvement driven by improved inflation, the PMI for Manufacturing which returned to an expansive level, and a decrease in the level of Implementation of Restrictions on Community Activities (PPKM) so that community mobility increased.

Hendriko has historically observed that the JCI in the fourth quarter usually strengthens in October and December. Meanwhile, in November, the JCI tended to mixed. Even if it weakens, Hendriko sees the correction will be natural because the strengthening in October is predicted to be quite high.

For December, the JCI movement is predicted to strengthen again, one of which is driven by window dressing. “So there is potential recovery and also from the JCI is quite good, we breakout from the 6,200 level yesterday,” explained Hendriko to Kontan.co.id, Friday (1/10).

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Just so you know, until the end of the year Sucor Sekuritas targets the JCI to be closed at the level of 6,750. Technically, Hendriko sees the JCI movement has the potential to reach the level of 6,450 to 6,600 with support monthly in the range of 6,000.

Despite the positive sentiment, Hendriko still warned investors to pay attention to sentiments that might weigh on the JCI’s future movements. One of them, the case of Evergrande. Although Evergrande has been intervened by the Chinese government, this problem has not been completely resolved.

Hendriko suggested to continue to observe the development. On the other hand, sentiment tapering off from the United States is also still looming.

Meanwhile, the Director of Anugerah Mega Investama, Hans Kwee, sees that investors will tend to be cautious in the fourth quarter of 2021. In his view, negative sentiments from the global market will still overshadow the JCI movement until the end of the year.

He also estimated that the JCI could reach the level of 6,400 by the end of 2021. Meanwhile, supportwas at level 6,000. According to him, potential tapering off United States in November will affect stock price movements.

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“Maybe there will be a shock in November. So we can expect a high rise after November,” he explained to Kontan.co.id, Sunday (3/10).

On the other hand, the United States government has signaled that it will increase its benchmark interest rate faster than expected if it finds momentum. Sentiment regarding the Evergande case in China can also have an effect if it cannot be resolved properly.

Considering these conditions, Hans Kwee prefers investors to enter stocks with jumbo capitalization in the fourth quarter. The risk of negative sentiment from the global market will decrease with investors entering these stocks. Remember, stocks big caps the majority are supported by the company’s strong fundamentals.