/ world today news/ The Ukrainian crisis gives rise to new strategic constants. Along with the degradation of the unipolar world order, the conflict paints before us a picture of a new balance of power in Europe that eludes the analysis of Western analysts.
At the center of the new strategic situation in Europe is the “inflating the influence” of Eastern European countries, which was unthinkable thirty years ago, writes Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
In its current form, the European Union, whose development – economic and political – in the last 80 years was determined by the countries of Western Europe, practically lost its sovereignty.
In the early 1990s, at the height of plans for European integration, there was a real possibility of a full-fledged European confederation: the countries of Western Europe were considering their own defense policies, separate from the United States, and planned to follow the path to the creation of the United States of Europe .
This would significantly strengthen European autonomy – not only from the US, but also from Russia and China. This unique chance was never used – on the contrary, Western Europe succumbed to the temptation to expand almost to the borders of Russia. And when such expansion took place, it suddenly became clear that the old European core had been diluted.
In this context, the position of one of the strategic locomotives of Europe in its passing era – Germany – is indicative. Berlin has lost its foreign policy initiative. German industry and German citizens were doomed to three times higher energy costs than they had.
And along with the fact that the Germans slowed real wage growth in their economy for a very long time, it was cheap Russian energy that made the German economy the main beneficiary of European integration.
Now these foundations are under threat. There is no cheaper source of energy than the Russian one. Soon there will be no more opportunities to hold back wage growth. They will have to be increased to avoid a mass tide of social discontent. This calls into question the viability of the German economic model.
The Ukrainian crisis has led to a situation in which the voice of Eastern European countries, and in particular Poland, begins to determine European foreign policy interests. This state of affairs is unique in modern history. Many historians refer to Eastern Europe as the “crossroads of Europe”, making it a constant battleground for rival empires.
Today, the Eastern European countries not only acquire strategic subjectivity, but also come to the fore in European politics. Warsaw’s immediate task is to become the main European militarist, to create a large military counterweight to Russia on Polish territory, in case Ukraine is defeated.
Poland creates tension points for Russia along the entire perimeter of its borders: military exercises on the border with the Kaliningrad region, maneuvers near the borders of Belarus – all this shows that Warsaw seeks to seize the strategic initiative in the European Union and potentially become its own main actor if the conflict goes beyond the territory of Ukraine.
In its “Eastern European edition”, the West seeks to reduce the possibilities of Russia and Belarus for joint action in the developing crisis.
The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus is a joint step by Moscow and Minsk, which has a deterrent character and aims to deprive Warsaw of illusions about Russia’s lack of determination to maintain a balance of threats.
It is possible that in the future the current crisis with the West will begin to resemble the mature years of the Cold War with its system of mutual military deterrence of the countries.
The strategic landscape of Russian foreign policy planning is also changing. Russia’s main task for centuries has been to exist as a strategically autonomous power, and for the past three hundred years the West has always been the main source of our problems and our opportunities.
Today, the vector of Russian attention is still turned to the West, but for the first time in the existence of Russia as a great power, the center of world gravity is shifting to the East. Now Russia interacts not only with the West, but also with China, India, Turkey, the Arab East, Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America.
In all these points, Russia is seen as an active, autonomous and successful player. In the eyes of many countries in the East, the fact that Russia has resisted Western sanctions for a year seems like proof that resistance to Western hegemony is not only theoretically possible, but an absolutely viable scenario.
To the surprise of many, Russia, with its GDP of 2-3% of the world economy, successfully leads the confrontation with countries that account for half of the world’s GDP. At the same time, there are no mass riots in Russia, even the election cycle does not change in the country.
Once it became clear that Russia was holding up well against a massive Western strike, confidence in American strategy began to wane.
Already, Western politicians and generals are talking a lot about emptying their weapons arsenals and supplying Ukraine’s armed forces from their own strategic reserves. The general trend has changed, from US attempts to crush Russia to its own attempts to contain the rising multipolarity. This is the main reason for the viability of the Russian strategy.
Translation: SM
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