Jakarta –
A study of the orbits of known space objects has found that Earth safe from collision events asteroid for at least about 1,000 years.
NASA and other observatories are tracking the orbits of objects found in the Solar System, keeping an eye out for ‘near Earth objects’ (NEO) measuring 140 meters and larger which could cause destruction if they pass by Earth.
By observing orbits, astrophysicists can predict future orbits of objects, and predict whether they will place them in this part of our Solar System.
So far, astronomers have been able to predict the orbits of known objects for about 100 years into the future. The good news, according to the study, is that no asteroid known to be larger than 140 meters has a significant chance of hitting Earth over the next 100 years, according to NASA.
Other sources provide more encouraging information. The team led by Oscar Fuentes-Muñoz of the University of Colorado Boulder predicted even larger asteroid paths up to 1,000 years into the future.
“Assessing impact risk on longer time scales is a challenge as orbit uncertainty grows. To overcome this limitation, we analyzed the evolution of the Minimum Orbit Interaction Distance (MOID), which limits the probability of a closest encounter between an asteroid and Earth,” the team explains in their paper.
“MOID evolution highlights NEOs that were in the vicinity of Earth for longer periods of time, and we propose a method for estimating the probability of deep Earth encounters during this period,” the researchers were quoted as saying by IFL Science.
Using this method, the team was able to rule out the vast majority of NEOs hitting our planet in the next thousand years, and were able to estimate the likelihood of other objects hitting Earth like a horde of dinosaurs.
The odds of being hit before the year 3000 appear to be fairly low according to the team, with the object most likely to hit us being an object named 7482 (1994 PC1) which has only a 0.00151% chance of a close encounter approaching Earth much closer than the Moon’s orbit.
Of course, not all objects have been found, although estimates suggest that we have found 95% of objects larger than 1 kilometer in size, so it is possible that one of the undiscovered objects is on its way.
However, large asteroid impacts on Earth are quite rare, although not as rare as we once thought, which we can tell by studying impact craters around the world.
Nevertheless, NASA has prepared for the possibility. Last year, NASA successfully redirected an asteroid by slamming a probe into it.
The team hopes their approach can be used to identify potentially hazardous objects, as well as when to be wary of a close approach.
“Long-term hazard ratings can be provided to the planetary defense community, as the most hazardous NEOs should be objects of interest for more detailed observations and future exploratory missions,” the researchers said.
Watch Video “NASA Beware of Giant Asteroids That Will Pass Earth“
(rns/rns)
2023-05-20 23:30:43
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