Early Parliamentary Elections in Spain: Potential Coalition between Partido Popular and Vox

AFP supporters of Vox at a campaign rally in Madrid, Friday

NOS Nieuws•vandaag, 09:01

Miral de Bruijne

correspondent Spain and Portugal

Miral de Bruijne

correspondent Spain and Portugal

Polling stations have opened in Spain for the early parliamentary elections. If the polls come true, the country will turn right. After four progressive years under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), the Spaniards seem ready for a conservative wind.

The centre-right Partido Popular is leading in the polls. Together with the far-right Vox, they can probably form a right-wing coalition. If that happens, Sánchez’s progressive plans will be shelved in favor of PP leader Alberto Feijóo’s conservative agenda.

Pablo Simón, one of Spain’s best-known political interpreters, explains in five questions and answers what can happen.

What does it mean if the PP forms a coalition with Vox?

“In the region you can already see what Vox’s plans are. There are two portfolios that they are preying on. Firstly, Vox will want to provide a minister for Agriculture; they are popular in the countryside and with farmers. The party is against the current climate policy.

Secondly, the party is interested in the culture portfolio. With this they can ultimately fight against the feminist movement and the LGBTI community. When it comes to those topics, Vox is much harder than the PP. That is a traditional and conservative party, but they do accept some fundamental basic rights, such as abortion and same-sex marriage. Vox is absolutely against that.”

How likely is it that that coalition will come about?

“In the first instance, the PP will do everything it can to govern without Vox. But if they do not get an absolute majority, I expect that they will try to form a coalition with Vox. They already form such a right-wing coalition in many municipalities and regions.”

AFPPP leader Feijóo is poised to become prime minister

What makes the PP better in the polls than the socialists?

“It is not that Sanchéz’s PSOE will receive fewer votes, but the PP will grow. That is because a smaller centre-right party has disappeared. Those votes now go to the PP.

In addition, PP leader Feijóo presented himself as a real manager in the campaign. He has stayed away from radical ideas, which will win him votes on both sides.

Sánchez has had two complicated spells during his reign. First, the corona pandemic, from which he came out relatively unscathed. But since the war in Ukraine, the country has been in economic decline. That has not helped the popularity of his government. In doing so, they shot themselves in the foot by passing a law that inadvertently lowered sentences for rapists. That has not been appreciated by the government, which calls itself feminist.

But what we should keep in mind is that Spain is still a free-spirited country. Less than 5 percent of Spaniards do not believe in climate change and only about 9 percent of the population are against refugees. Public opinion has not suddenly changed, but support for the current government has shrunk.”

AFP Premier Sánchez (m) at the closing meeting in the Madrid suburb of Getafe, Friday

What is the main difference between the Social Democratic Party and the PP?

“The big difference between the two parties lies in their economic agenda. The social democratic PSOE, for example, wants higher taxes for banks, a higher minimum wage and social security for everyone. Within their plans, the government gets much more power. PP is a classical liberal party and wants the opposite. They are in favor of lower taxes, fewer subsidies and therefore less interference from the government. They want the market to be able to do its job.

The parties also differ when it comes to climate, for example. For the PSOE, the climate agenda is much more important, as are international relations and the European Union. This is less high on the agenda for the PP. For example, their leader Feijóo doesn’t even speak English.”

What is the probability that a coalition cannot be formed and new elections will be held?

“A second election was necessary in 2015 and 2019. If no coalition is possible or no coalition can be formed within a certain time, there will be new elections. Then we would have to go to the polls again before February. That would mean that we would be without a missionary cabinet for about eight months.

It’s not an impossible scenario, but there are clear alliance blocs in this election. If the PP gets the most votes, they will be able to form a majority with Vox and perhaps some small parties. If the PSOE does become the largest party, Sánchez can probably also achieve a majority together with the left-wing Sumar and a number of small regional parties.”

2023-07-23 07:01:04
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