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NOS Nieuws•vandaag, 06:00
Although the war between Hamas and Israel is frequently discussed in the election campaign, the conflict plays a minimal role in voters’ vote choices. This can be concluded from representative research by research agency Ipsos, commissioned by NOS.
For only a fifth of voters, the conflict will play a role in the upcoming House of Representatives elections. The war in Ukraine also plays only a minor role.
The Dutch consider inflation, healthcare, housing, migration and, to a lesser extent, climate to be much more important. Particularly in the field of climate, significant differences can be seen across the political spectrum. For example, this is the most important issue for left-wing voters (46 percent), but it is much less important for the political center (21 percent) and the right (12 percent).
Although these themes are seen as important by voters, they do not always translate into a voting choice. Dutch people consider health care (65 percent) to be the most important for their voting choice, followed by government reliability (63 percent), inflation (62 percent), norms and values (60 percent) and immigration and asylum (55 percent).
Ipsos / NOSThe most important election themes
NSC voters in particular indicate that the themes ‘reliability of government’ and ‘norms and values’ play an important role. For more than two-thirds of GroenLinks/PvdA voters, the climate is a much more important voting motive, while only a quarter of VVD members see it that way.
Omtzigt, Timmermans and Yesilgöz potential prime minister
The research also shows that the campaign around the prominent politicians still needs to get going. Compared to the previous research into this, around Budget Day, the picture is virtually unchanged. For example, NSC leader Omtzigt is still the most highly rated politician, followed by Yesilgöz (VVD), Van der Plas (BBB) and Stoffer (SGP). GroenLinks/PvdA leader Timmermans remains in the middle bracket.
Nevertheless, Timmermans, Omtzigt and Yesilgöz are the three most mentioned as potential prime minister. Omtzigt has the broadest support: voters on the left, right and center find him an acceptable prime minister. Timmermans is the big favorite among left-wing voters, but less appealing in other groups. The opposite applies to Yesilgöz.
Ipsos / NOSWWho would voters most like to see as Prime Minister?
Although Omtzigt often says that he should be about the content and not about ‘the figures’, 68 percent of NSC voters consider the party leader as important as the party program. Right-wing voters also see it that way. Left-wing voters find the leader less important and often find the party program decisive.
Voters prefer NSC in cabinet
Voters from almost all parties would like to see Omtzigt’s NSC participate in the next cabinet. The NSC voters themselves would like to see this happen in combination with BBB, VVD and PVV. PVV voters also like such a combination, although there is division within that group about cooperation with the VVD. At the same time, some of the VVD supporters absolutely do not want cooperation with the PVV.
Ipsos / NOSWhich parties would voters like to see in the cabinet, measured in September and October
GroenLinks/PvdA voters agree with Timmermans’ wishes in terms of their preferred coalition. He would prefer not to work with the VVD, but feels more in favor of a centre-left government with NSC, D66 and Party for the Animals.
Less than half trust politics
The research also shows that trust in national politics is low among all age groups, although trust has increased slightly since Budget Day. Four in ten Dutch people currently have confidence in politics. The inability to make hard choices and solve problems is cited as an important reason.
Voters believe that politicians should make decisions more often, even if not everyone is equally satisfied with this. They mainly want policies in the areas of migration, elderly care, the housing market and purchasing power, as well as nitrogen and climate policies. The Dutch also think that the House of Representatives could be more decisive if there were fewer parties. A growing number of voters (43 percent) are interested in an electoral threshold.
Finally, a tenth of Dutch people think that the House of Representatives elections will be unfair. 55 percent think they will be honest. After the March 2021 elections, 68 percent of Dutch people still thought the elections were fair.
The BBB and PVV electorate are relatively skeptical. 46 percent and 32 percent respectively expect the elections to be fair. At Forum for Democracy, only 4 percent think the elections will be fair. For other parties that share is between more than half to three quarters.
2023-11-03 05:00:02
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