The Dutch analyst PlanB has been known for years within the crypto community for his stock-to-flow (S2F) model. In the past, this model proved to be able to predict the course of bitcoin (BTC) to predict. Recently, PlanB made another prediction for the bitcoin price on Twitter.
PlanB makes another prediction
Much has been said about the S2F model in recent years, with the model first gaining huge popularity due to its bullish price forecasts. Many others criticize it precisely because of the unfulfilled predictions. For the first few years, the S2F model proved to be right time after time. However, since the bear market, it has not even come close to predictions, including hitting the magic milestone of at least $100,000.
An important aspect in the S2F model are the so-called halving events. Such a halving takes place approximately every four years and this effectively means that the reward for Bitcoin miners is halved. In practice, this means that the number of new bitcoins coming into circulation will fall by 50%. According to the law of supply and demand, the bitcoin rate obviously for the better, and PlanB’s S2F model also weighs heavily on this.
Another halving is on the agenda next year, and many investors see it as an extremely important moment.
Bitcoin halving
PlanB has indicated on Twitter that he expects that during the halving next year the bitcoin price will have scribbled up again. It won’t have reached the sky-high prices that its model predicted several years ago, but according to PlanB, bitcoin will hover around $60,000.
Saying S2F model is “wrong/invalid/broken”, means saying BTC price pumps after 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings (red arrows) are coincidences, random, unrelated to halvings.
Possible, but I disagree. IMO 21M cap, supply schedule, 4y halving cycle are fundamental to BTC price. IMO the… pic.twitter.com/2ZOUGPhVtM— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 21, 2023
PlanB also addressed Metcalfe’s law, which states that the financial value or impact of a network is proportional to the number of connected and working users.
Metcalfe’s Law says: value of a network = number of users squared (N^2)
S2F Model says: value of an asset = scarcity cubed (S2F^3)
So if S2F 2x then value 8x (2x2x2)
Oh, and April 2024 halving will 2x #Bitcoin S2F
Probably nothing🔥 pic.twitter.com/UtZiMe1c4h— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 21, 2023
Of course they remain predictions, and PlanB does not have a crystal ball either. Time will tell if PlanB and its models are right again. Many bitcoin investors will at least hope so.
