Highest Ranking Article on Dune: Part Two
We’ve been waiting for this one
We’ve been waiting for this one for quite some time. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, Dune: Part Two opens this weekend in what’s a much-needed jolt of testosterone for the box office that’s been winded by the dual strikes’ delay of titles. To date, the annual 2024 domestic box office hasn’t cracked a billion yet with only $866.3M through Sunday, -18% behind the Jan. 1-Feb. 25 frame a year ago. The second part to the multi-Oscar winning Denis Villeneuve 2021 feature take of the Frank Herbert classic novel could very well see a $170M worldwide opening — that’s divided into $85M–$90M abroad and another $80M on the high end in U.S./Canada (Warners is conservatively projecting $65M, but most exhibitors and tracking services see near $80M).
Content is King
Content is king. Dune: Part Two at $190M was largely financed by Legendary, however, Warner Bros. does have a double-digit low stake in the pic. Warners will get a small share of the box office and also a distribution fee. Warner Bros. spent on global marketing in a campaign steered by Warner marketing guru, Josh Goldstine, a message they hope resounds with the audiences, and the fellow industry people who will undoubtedly press and possibly perpetuate for imagery of a moving needle — that David Zaslav-run Warner Bros. Discovery is moving on from the slow-paced flow Warner Bros. owned by AT&T emanated in recent years due to ownership and personnel inertia. Warner Bros. release of Villeneuve’s Dune in 2021 — bound to scare a shave ice stand in Disney’s Epcot Pavilion Norway out of it — was a tired Warners showing great promise and denying few pleasantries to Legendary, but those are moves forward that must perform to theirs and Hollywood’s expectations.
Advance Ticket Sales
That stateside confidence stems from advance ticket sales which lean greatly toward fanboys and premium formats like IMAX and PLF. Sources tell us that all in as of last Friday, Dune: Part Two has collected $18M in advance ticket sales ($11.5M of that from the top three circuits). Fandango counts around 200K which is just under where Jurassic World: Dominion ($145M opening) and ahead of Oppenheimer ($82.4M). Dune: Part Two’s advance sales are also in line with Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3. However, industry sources aren’t getting over their skis: While these types of pre-sales indicate a $100M-plus opening on Dune: Part Two the challenge is that non-premium sales are OK on the Zendaya, Timothy Chalamet, Austin Butler, and Florence Pugh space opera. That’s what’s currently pulling down estimates to $80M vicinity stateside.
Excellent Reviews and Release Details
Note that $65M-$80M domestic opening will be wonders above the $41M domestic opening of 2021’s Dune, which saw ticket sales siphoned by a theatrical day-and-date release on the streaming service HBO Max back in early October that year. Still, Dune is one of a handful of day-and-date titles to cross $100M at the domestic box office and only one of two, along with Legendary’s Godzilla vs. Kong, to cross $400M-plus worldwide. It was one of the few blockbusters that worked both in homes and theaters, but it certainly left money on the table.
International Release and Expectations
The film is booked at 4,050 theaters in the United States and Canada with 3,400 locations going on Thursday previews. It will be playing in every premium format. Dune: Part Two begins overseas rollout on Wednesday, starting in France, Korea, Italy, and Scandinavia. Thursday adds 42 markets including Germany, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, and all of Latin America. On Friday, Spain and the UK join the release to round out a total international launch in 71 markets.
Part Two to Exceed Expectations
As far as the $85M-$90M overseas opening goes, there’s, of course, wiggle room. We are looking at a movie that’s been saddled with a sort of savior badge but which can also skew to adults meaning the need to see — despite little new in recent weeks – could mean a slower burn. Still, with Zendaya and her otherworldly outfits gracing red carpets around the globe, the play here abroad versus the first film is hoped to be slightly younger, and that could be cause for bigger numbers. Here in the United States and Canada, we’re hearing that Dune: Part Two is heavily male (the first film drew 61% dudes).
Expectations from Past Films
In like-for-like markets, the 2021 Dune grossed $52.5M abroad at open and at today’s exchanges. Back then, Warner Bros. released the film into a select group of markets after its premiere at the Venice Film Festival and then held some back to get away from the James Bond movie No Time to Die. Other coms we’re hearing are Ready Player One at $53M in today’s rates, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One with $85M on its pure opening weekend, and Warner’s 2022 The Batman which released on the comparable weekend to Dune: Part Two with $109M in like-for-likes at today’s rates.
Expansion Plans and Cure for Blockbuster Drought
Although Dune: Part Two doesn’t release in China until March 8, the first movie is re-releasing this coming weekend in an effort to stoke interest. For Part Two, Japan joins on March 15, and the Middle East follows on April 11. Warner Bros. plans a seven-day preview leading up to Ramadan before the official Middle East launch. Rereleases have also taken place in 60 markets leading up to this weekend to increase the excitement level.
