In his first speech after the release of estimates, Duda described his victory as absolutely decisive, although he admitted that Trzaskowski had a chance in the second round. He also criticized the previous governments of the Civic Platform, recalling their missteps and problems, says Lukáš Mathé, a Czech correspondent in Poland. In his speech, the current president also began to attract voters of unsuccessful candidates, stressing that he was close in opinion.
After the publication of the exit polls, Trzaskowski stated that the result indicates a chance to defeat Duda. “With support like this (today), we can go and fight for Poland,” the mayor of Warsaw said.
TV presenter and activist Szymon Hołownia finished in third place with 13.3 percent of the vote. “This is a good starting position for further political activity,” notes Martin Ehl, head of the foreign section of Hospodářské noviny. The candidate had previously promised to support the opposition candidate Trzaskowski for the second round.
According to preliminary estimates, far-right MP Krzysztof Bosak, who reached 7.4 percent of voters, is in fourth place, followed by left-wing politician Robert Biedroń with 2.9 percent and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, who voted 2.6 percent. According to the exit polls, the remaining candidates did not achieve even one percent of the votes cast with their profit.
The State Electoral Commission has announced that it will announce the final official results by Wednesday evening. Interim preliminary data on how the Poles voted is expected in the coming hours.
The second round will be tight, the analyst estimates
“Numbers are a problem for both candidates, they did not go with them. These numbers appeared for a long time, but none of them could move them higher. There is a slight tendency to strengthen Trzaskowski and weaken Duda, but it is in tenths of a percent, “notes Ehl. Addressing voters from the second camp will be problematic for both candidates, he said.
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“The campaign in the next two weeks will be very sharp, it will fight for every vote. The second round will be very close, “estimates Vít Dostál, director of the AMO research agency. According to him, the mayor of Warsaw will appeal to the need to control the PiS, which has ruled for a long time and holds the lower house, the government and the post of president. “At the same time, he will want to separate himself a little from his own party, he will say that he is a candidate who will find understanding for all Poles,” he adds.
The key will be how the voters of the unsuccessful candidates behave. “Robert Biedroń does not want to express his support for Trzaskowski, although it seems that most of his constituents would follow Trzakowski. It will be very important how Krzysztof Bosak’s voters behave. It is generally believed that most of them will stay at home, and if any of them go to the polls, they will vote more for Duda, “Mathé summed up the situation before the first round of the election.
Duda lost, Trzaskowski did not enter the campaign until mid-May
Recent polls the current head of state, Andrzej Duda, fit in the role of favorite, attributing a gain of between 40 and 45 percent of the vote. Opposition candidate Trzaskowski was predicted to win a fifth to a quarter of all votes cast. Even at the turn of April and May, just before the originally scheduled election date, which was May 10, it seemed that Duda would defend the presidential position in the first round. His preferences were consistently above fifty percent, at its peak even around sixty.
Mayor of Warsaw entered the election campaign only in mid-May. At that time, he replaced the original opposition PO candidate, Malgorzata Kidaw-Blońska, who fell into preferences and resigned in an atmosphere of pre-election disputes over the coronavirus pandemic. Trzaskowski had six days to deliver at least 100,000 signatures needed to run for president. He brought more than 1.6 million.
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The elections take place in a situation where a large part of the measures against the spread of coronavirus have been relaxed in the country, but at the same time local epicenters of the infection are emerging. In some places, therefore, people could only vote by correspondence, in others they chose whether to vote by post or traditionally in the polling station.
Due to the pandemic, PiS tried to enforce exclusively correspondence voting, because the postponement played against Duda. However, due to reservations, the elections in the atmosphere of confusion were postponed shortly before the scheduled date. Dud’s lead then gradually diminished as the Polish economy began to feel the effects of the pandemic crisis and Trzaskowski’s preferences grew.
According to the latest polls, the second round looks balanced. According to Kantar survey 47 percent of voters would vote for Duda, while 45 percent would vote for Trzaskowski. IPSOS investigation says 47 percent would support Trzaskowski and 43 percent Dud. It will be very important for both of them how the voters of the dropped candidates will vote in the second round.
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