Dubai Hit by Record Flooding: Reasons Behind the Heavy Rain and Climate Change Impact

Dubai has been hit by record flooding in the past 24 hours, prompting false speculation about “cloud seeding”.

So how strange is the rain and what are the reasons behind the heavy rain?

Dubai is located on the coast of the United Arab Emirates and is usually very dry, but although less than 100 mm (3.9 in) of rain falls annually in Dubai on average, it gets heavy rain sometimes.

In the city of Al Ain – just over 100 kilometers (62 miles) from Dubai – about 256 mm (10 inches) of rain was recorded in just 24 hours.

The main reason was a low weather system “cut off” that pulled in warm, moist air and prevented other weather systems from passing through.

“This part of the world is characterized by long periods without rain followed by heavy and erratic rain, but despite this, this was a very rare rain event,” explained Martin Ambaum, a meteorological researcher at the University of Reading who has studied rain patterns. .

It is not yet possible to accurately determine the extent of the role of climate change, and this requires a full scientific study of natural and human factors, which could take several months. But the maximum amount of rain depends on how the weather changes.

Simply put, warmer air can hold more moisture – about 7% more per degree Celsius – and that can lead to more intense rain.

“The intensity of the rain has broken records, but this is consistent with a warm climate, with enough moisture to fuel storms and make heavy rain and associated flooding increasingly powerful,” explained Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading.

A recent study showed that annual rainfall could increase by up to 30% in most parts of the United Arab Emirates by the end of this century, as global temperatures continue to rise.

“If people continue to burn oil, gas and coal, the climate will continue to warm, rain will continue to fall heavier, and people will continue to lose their lives in floods,” said Frederik Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial. London College.

Cloud seeding involves manipulating existing clouds to produce more rain.

This can be done by using aircraft to drop small particles (such as silver iodide) into clouds, so that it is easier for water vapor to enter the water.

This technology has been around for decades, and the UAE has used it in recent years to deal with water shortages.

In the hours after the floods, some social media users were quick to attribute severe weather to the country’s recent cloud seeding activity.

Previous Bloomberg reports indicated that cloud seeding planes were deployed on Sunday and Monday, but not on Tuesday, when the flooding occurred.

The BBC could not independently confirm the timing of cloud seeding, but experts say it would have had the least impact on the storm, and that the focus on cloud seeding is “misleading”.

Furthermore, Dr. Otto says, “Even if cloud seeding around Dubai promotes rain, the atmosphere is likely to carry more rain to form clouds in the first place, as a result on climate change.”

Cloud seeding is generally used when wind, humidity and dust conditions are insufficient for rain to subside, and last week, meteorologists warned of high flood risks across the Gulf.

“When forecasting such intense systems, there is no cloud seeding – which is an expensive process – because there is no need to seed such strong systems at a regional scale,” says Diana Francis, head Population. Department of Environment and Geophysical Sciences at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi.

Matt Macin Taylor, a meteorologist with the BBC, noted that the extreme weather was already expected.

“Prior to the event, computer models (which do not take into account the potential effects of cloud seeding) were already predicting 24-hour precipitation above the full factor average,” Taylor said.

He added: “The impact was also much wider than I expected from the cloud seeding process alone – massive flooding affecting large areas from Bahrain to Oman.”

Cloud seeding activities in the UAE are managed by the National Meteorology Centre, a government task force.

To prevent heavy rains from turning into devastating floods, strong defenses are needed to deal with sudden heavy rains.

Dubai is, of course, very urban, but there is not enough green space to absorb moisture, and the sanitary facilities could not withstand such high water levels.

“There must be strategies and measures to adapt to this new reality of more frequent and more intense rain,” explained Diana Francis.

“For example, road and utility infrastructure needs to be changed, and reservoirs need to be built to store water from the spring rain and use it later in the year,” she said.

In January, the UAE Roads and Transport Authority established a new unit to help manage flooding in Dubai.