According to these predictions, the post-communist Left (five percent of the vote), the FDP party (12 percent of the vote) and the AfD 10 percent should get into the Federal Assembly.
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ARD television forecast brings a shocking result, writes the server of the weekly Focus. According to this forecast, the Social Democrats of the SPD and the Conservative Union CDU / CSU would get exactly the same result, with 25 percent of the vote. The Greens should get 15 percent, the FDP 11 percent, the post-communist Left five percent and the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) ten percent.
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According to both forecasts, a coalition of red-red-green SPD, Linke and Zelení is not possible, it would not reach the required majority in the Federal Assembly, namely 365 seats.
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Coalition variants
According to these forecasts, a large coalition, ie the SPD and the CDU / CSU, comes into play. According to the daily Bild, Olaf Scholz would be the chancellor in this case. The so-called Jamaica Coalition (CDU / CSU + FDP + Greens) is also at stake. The daily Bild claims that in this case the chancellor would be Armin Laschet. Another option is the traffic light coalition (SPD + FDP + Greens), which would be led by Scholz. Another option is a coalition called Kenya, ie SPD + CDU + Greens, led by Scholz. The last option is a coalition SPD + CDU + FDP, Scholz could lead here.
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“Citizens have decided that the SPD is going up. And that is a great success, “said party leader Olaf Scholz. It is expected to be a long election night. “Many people have crossed the SPD because they want a change of government and they want the new chancellor to be called Olaf Scholz. We are a pragmatic party that knows how to govern. now we are waiting for the final election results and we will start work, “he concluded.
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Despite the losses, CDU / CSU Conservative leader Armin Laschet wants to fight for a Conservative government. “Everything will be done to form a federal government under the leadership of the union. Because Germany needs a coalition to modernize it. “
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The polling stations closed at 6 p.m. In this year’s parliamentary elections, 60.4 million eligible voters were able to vote. The individual Länder reported a relatively high turnout, despite the fact that millions of people had already cast their ballots in advance. It is expected that the share of correspondence and attendance votes can be balanced. This year, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is leaving politics after this election, also voted for a correspondence vote.
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According to forecasts by ARD and ZDF stations, turnout is between 76 and 78 percent. In 2017, it was 76.2 percent.
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But neither the SPD nor the CDU / CSU will win the Chancellor’s seat. It will depend on the negotiating skills of the parties, which will probably need two more coalition partners to form a government. One of them will be the Greens, which could be complemented by the Liberal Free Democrats (FDP) or the post-communist Left. It is also possible to continue the existing grand coalition of SPD and CDU / CSU, which, however, seems unlikely.
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The formation of a government can take weeks to months. This may mean that Merkel will rule Germany perhaps until Christmas. If so, he will lead the government at least until December 17, he will become the longest-serving German chancellor in the country’s post-war history. This primacy is currently held by Chancellor Unifier Helmut Kohl, who headed the federal government from 1982 to 1998.
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