DRAM fixed prices stopped falling, expectations for super cycles increased

[아시아경제 이창환 기자] It was found that the decline in the fixed price of major memory semiconductor products stopped after six months. As spot prices have already risen significantly, expectations for an improvement in the semiconductor industry are expected to grow in the future.

According to Trend Force, a market research firm on the 2nd, the fixed transaction prices for 16GB server DRAM (DDR4 16GB R-DIMM) and 32GB server DRAM last month were $65 and $110, respectively, maintaining the same price as last month. Server DRAM fell for 5 consecutive months from July to last month due to increased inventory in the second half of last year, but prices stopped falling in December.

The average fixed transaction price for PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb) was also calculated to be $2.85 without change from November. Trend Force analyzed that “the customer’s inventory has been relatively low, and the power outage at Micron’s Taiwan plant has created a favorable environment for suppliers.”

Spot prices, which act as a leading indicator for fixed prices, are already rising. The DRAM spot price from $2.7 at the end of November rose nearly 30% to $3.46 at the end of last month.

It has been six months since last May that the spot price of DRAM reached the $3 range. DRAM Exchange predicted that DRAM prices will continue to rebound and will increase to a maximum of 10% in the first quarter of next year.

The semiconductor industry predicts that this year, the semiconductor market can enter the super cycle (super boom) in three years. The supply is limited, but it is believed that semiconductor sales could increase and prices could rise further as demand for non-face-to-face (untact) continues to increase due to the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19).

According to KOTRA’s ‘2021 Export Outlook’, next year’s semiconductor market will enter a supercycle, and demand is expected to increase by 19% for DRAM and 34% for NAND flash compared to this year. In fact, Korean semiconductor exports have increased significantly for several months until last month, leading to overall improvement in exports.

Reporter Changhwan Lee [email protected]

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