Assoc. Prof. Tira revealed that COVID-19 59 percent of all infections are transmitted by transmission of infected people without symptoms. Suggest to limit movement
Today (16 Jan ’16), the epidemic situation of COVID-19 continues to spread even though vaccine production has begun, Assoc. Prof. Thira Worathanarat Faculty medicine Chulalongkorn University Post a message through Facebook Thira Woratanarat, stating that
At the beginning of December last year It was estimated from the lessons of 75 countries around the world that If Thailand, we enter a complete recurrence of the outbreak It may take us 88 days or almost three months to manage this outbreak. And there is a maximum chance of infecting 940 people per day with the total number of infections. 23,635-33,088 people, which depends on how hard we can fight for the first four weeks after the reappearance.
This time, when I try to make an estimate, another approach is to estimate the size of the icebergs that appear above the water. And the size of underwater ice By looking at the rate of infection from the examination or positivity rate in a country similar to Thailand, namely South Korea, it was found that he had the same rate as ours at 1.3% (data from Ourworldindata, January 10, 2021). His testing per 1,000 people is five times more than ours, and many times more new infections per day than us. Consistent with that logic If examined, there will be a lot of chances The less examination, the less likely to meet.
Cross-sectional On days with the same pre-infection rate of 1.3%, it was found that South Korea was 2.7 times more infected than us if the distribution characteristics of the test group were mixed in equal proportions. The data above estimate that the exposed part of the water will be only 27.03% and by proportion. The number of infections in this recurrent outbreak that we find around 7,000 people have accumulated to date. Approximately 25,926 people may have contracted the infection, which appears to be consistent in the estimates of the re-experienced pandemic of 75 countries around the world in December.
As described above, for use in consideration of all our life plans Please take full protection. Because this outbreak spread all over Not only at risk But to the general people who live daily in various activities Including family members and friends at work
Most recently, a study in JAMA published on January 7 estimates that 59% of all infections are transmitted by people who are infected without symptoms. Especially reinforcing us to be careful with our daily life Because there is a chance to get infected from people close to Or we may be infected without knowing it and spread it to family and friends.
How to cut this epidemic To limit the movement of people intensely enough Along with everyone’s defense campaign And expedite the detection of latent infections in the country
Always wear a mask, wash your hands often, and stay a meter away from other people. Stay home to stop infection for you. Leave the house as necessary Buying food to take home Should not eat and drink in the store unless necessary. And observe symptoms for themselves and their families, if they are unwell, they should seek treatment
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