Rumors that North Korea joined the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia were also confirmed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyi. The Kremlin sent a draft law on the ratification of the strategic partnership agreement with the DPRK to the deputies. It also counts on providing military aid if the other side is attacked. “Cooperation gives the DPRK diplomatic advantages,” Michal Smetana from the Institute of International Studies of the Faculty of Social Sciences of Charles University tells Radiožurnál.
Interview
Pyongyang
21:12 October 15, 2024 Share on Facebook
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South Korea supplied Ukraine through Western partners, that is, indirectly, a large amount of artillery ammunition in the past | Photo: Serhii Nuzhnenko | Source: Reuters
Can the strategic partnership agreement be considered as the creation of a military alliance?
Yes, in a way yes. The clause you mentioned is a fairly typical part of contracts. On its basis, military alliances are established, whether it is more or less formal and in this case it is certainly possible to talk about it, but of course all these formulations are generally very vague and it always depends on the political will of individual actors, how they fulfill it in practice .
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Listen to an interview about the DPRK’s involvement in the war in Ukraine
Why did North Korea apparently decide to enter Russia’s conflict with Ukraine personally? What are the benefits for her?
He has a variety of motivations for this. North Korea has been one of the most sanctioned states in international politics for a very long time and has very limited options to cooperate with the outside world.
This means that cooperation with Russia gives it some diplomatic advantages, but also potentially significant economic advantages, where Russia is able to supply North Korea with important know-how, possibly materials and components that are key to North Korea’s strategic agenda, especially as it relates to other development of the nuclear program.
At the same time, North Korea, because of the situation it’s in, that it’s very isolated, it needs fuel and it needs food, it needs a lot of other things, including funds. And all of this is what Russia is able to offer North Korea in exchange for the fact that North Korea then offers military aid to Russia in a not entirely negligible amount.
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If North Korean soldiers were also involved in the fighting, can it be estimated how it would affect the development of the conflict and how many soldiers could be involved?
It needs to be said that what we are currently dealing with and what is being demonstrated in some way is some evidence for it, let’s say it is more of an engineering support, where North Korea probably sends its personnel to help Russia service, for example, the ballistic missiles delivered to Russia by North Korea .
This means that we are not talking about it at all, or at least that is why there is currently no evidence available that, for example, North Korean infantry would be directly deployed to fight on the side of Russia. Something like this cannot be ruled out in the future, of course it is also a possibility according to the mentioned contract that something like this would happen, but it is definitely not something that we are actively aware of now.
And with a high probability, if, for example, someone from the North Korean infantry was killed directly on a battle line, we would know about it by now. That said, it’s some option for the future, but right now we’re talking about relatively limited staff support.
You mentioned North Korea supplying arms to Russia. Both sides deny this, but is it clear how much ammunition is flowing to Russia from the DPRK and how significant is that amount in the total volume of ammunition that Russia needs?
It is definitely significant. Regarding artillery ammunition, for example, we are really talking about millions of pieces, so there it is very substantial help from North Korea. And another big help is ballistic missiles, when, for example, North Korea has similar types of ballistic missiles as the Russian Iskander.
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After all, it is a technology that is made precisely on the basis of Soviet designs. That is, it is something that Russia can operate with, that North Korea can provide, and that Russia is very actively using, for example, in attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
What does this deal between DPRK and Russia mean for South Korea? Is Russia, for example, directly involved in the territory of North Korea?
This is of course a sensitive issue for South Korea, as North and South Korea have long been in very problematic relations that have occasionally escalated to the use of some limited amount of force, and there is a permanent fear of a conflict reminiscent of a war in the 1950s.
But it needs to be said that South Korea has already taken a certain position in this conflict. In the past, South Korea supplied Ukraine through Western partners, i.e. indirectly, a large amount of artillery ammunition, which, among other things, enabled the Ukrainian offensive in 2023. These were truly substantive deliveries. That means, here we are talking about the fact that South Korea has already made some political position in this conflict.
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