Many Lebanese are wondering about the future of their country after the painful strikes suffered by Hezbollah and the assassination of its historic leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
After the killing of the prominent leader, and before this group confirmed, the opposition celebrated this news in the streets. “Mixed feelings,” says Rami (28 years old), from the town of Naqoura in southern Lebanon, whose family moved to Beirut at the start of the war.
Rami added in statements to the newspaper: Haaretz“The chapter called Hezbollah has been closed, but we are worried about what will come next.
Rami’s fear is justified because the group and its terrorists have dominated the country’s population for decades.
Rami says: “I will never forget Nasrallah’s speech last year, in which he incited against the gay community in the country, and against parents who wanted to include gender issues in education.”
Issam, a Syrian citizen who lived in Damascus before fleeing with his family to Paris during the Syrian civil war, says: “I think the Syrians will develop diabetes after a lot of eat sweets at the celebrations held last week. “
And she celebrates Journal of economics She noted that “many will feel a measure of joy” after his killing, noting that “party tugs contributed to the suppression of a popular uprising for re- development in 2019, and two years later they forced the state to stop investigating the Beirut explosion.”
Nasrallah (64 years old) became the Secretary General of Hezbollah in 1992, after Israel assassinated his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, Nasrallah developed his military capabilities, with great support from Tehran, which gave him money and weapons, and the number of its members increased until now, according to him, about 100,000 armed men.
But the assassination of the group’s leaders was qualitative and unprecedented.
Spies or technological progress… How did Israel kill Nasrallah?
The names of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political bureau of the Hamas movement, and Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, were added to a long list of leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard that Israel was able, with precision strikes, to eliminate within weeks.
In a sign of the weakened state of the group, whose leader was killed in its stronghold, the southern suburbs of Beirut, the group fired dozens of rockets at northern Israel the morning after his death, but no this is different from what had happened. happened in the previous days.
The Economist describes the situation by saying: “The community is in turmoil.”
Heiko Weiman, director of the Iraq, Syria and Lebanon Project at the International Crisis Group, said in an opinion shared by the group with Al Hurra: “The group has too strong institutions to collapse.” together by getting the head, but the great loss of her human ability. it will inevitably have a humbling effect sooner rather than later.”
He also points out that such a strong intelligence advance will weaken Hezbollah’s ability to respond “strategically or continue missile attacks on northern Israel for a longer period of time.”
Irav Zonszin, Israel affairs analyst at the International Crisis Group, said in an opinion shared by the Al-Hurra website, “Israel’s assassination of Nasrallah and the strike he targeted has a large number of Hezbollah’s senior leaders is considered a major influence in Israeli politics. range in every direction.”
“But without a clear border for Lebanon or Gaza, with an exhausted Israeli army, continuous rocket fire, hostile detention, tens of thousands of displaced people, and a shrinking Israeli economy, the question now is is Israel will turn military gains into diplomatic gains.”
The Economist magazine believes that Nasrallah’s death will “reshape Lebanon and the region in ways that would have never occurred to anyone a year ago…
Not only did Israel “almost eliminate its military leadership and destroy decades of experience within two months, but rather because the group was humiliated in front of the Lebanese people, who had already been dissatisfied with Hezbollah because of its excessive internal control. politics.”
Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Advisor, Amr Al-Shobaki, told the Al-Hurra website that Nasrallah is an unusual personality, as he took over the leadership of the group for 32 year, which is an unusual time, which means that his absence will affect Hezbollah, Lebanon, and the region.
Al-Shoubaki adds to his statements on the Al-Hurra website that he was not only the leader of a political party or the leader of a country that came in elections, but that he was the leader of an ideological party who remained at his head for decades. , so it will leave a leadership vacuum.
There is no doubt that the group will be affected because it is not in a turbulent area,” according to Al-Shoubaki.
“milestone” level.
Imad Gad, who is also an expert at the Al-Ahram Center, and a former member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Egyptian Parliament, told the Al-Hurra website that Nasrallah is not only a leader historical, but a charismatic person who does not exist. it affects the group.
Jad agrees that his assassination came at a “critical time: the attack against Lebanon, and the elimination of a large number of leaders, which means that he disappeared in unusual circumstances, and therefore, no a transition of leadership will occur smoothly taking over leadership after charismatic leadership will surely suffer.”
His assassination also came, according to Jad, at a time when Iran did not show its solidarity with Hezbollah except in words, and “Hezbollah’s environment has been eroded, and there is great destruction in the suburbs of right, and there are calls” to implement Resolution 1701 regarding the withdrawal of Hezbollah to the north of the Litani.
Gad says that if “the decision is implemented by any real settlement process, whether in the future or in the middle, his weapons will be subject to negotiations for their removal, which means that his forces will survive, by using the weapon. troops in the area, meaning that this weapon will be useless, and that questions will be raised about “legitimacy.”
Jad said: “We are at a turning point,” and it is different from the previous rounds of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel.
Al-Shoubaki believes that Hezbollah will have two options: either to continue with the same previous policies, which is to connect with Iran and adhere to an axis “against, ” or to show more flexibility that he will press to accept Resolution 1701.
Based on the current situation, Al-Shoubaki intends to manage his relationship with Iran in a different way, because he will take into account the Lebanese environment, especially since the majority of Lebanese do not give support for war with Israel, and even supporters of the Palestinian cause support providing civil and popular support and not engaging in war.
Hezbollah is expected to continue its alliance with Iran, but it will try to be more moderate and freeze the fighting in the north after the “heavy” strikes it carried out.
Eli Fayez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, said of the loss of the Iranian aid group, “The difficulties that Iran and its allies have suffered prove their intelligence and operational weakness, and their willingness as Israel increases, and Tehran has a real way to counter Israel in terms of intelligence, it seems reluctant to counter it actively. “
The Economist notes that Nasrallah expected Iran to step in to help him, but this did not happen, partly because Iran’s leaders feared that their leaders might be included in Israel’s infiltration.
They are also concerned about the impact their public display of support for groups such as Hezbollah will have on their standing at home.
But in the long run, the events of the past two weeks could lead to a “reshaping of Iran’s security policy,” according to the magazine.
For decades, Iran has viewed its militias as a major deterrent to Israel, “and now it sees them under deadly attacks.”
The Economist magazine cites an “Arab official” as saying that what was under Hezbollah’s control is similar to what happened during the Six-Day War in 1967.
It seems that not only did Israel deal a quick and violent blow to Hezbollah, but because “the two conflicts (1967 and the current conflict between Israel and Hezbollah) seemed to break the disillusionment that had been ruling the area for a long time.”
She points out that Nasrallah, who spent years talking about an “axis of resistance,” “Israel took the head of the most powerful militia within weeks, while Iran sat until crazy “
The magazine says that Hezbollah will not disappear, because it has thousands of terrorists, an arsenal of long-range missiles, and a base of popular support.
But the militia that comes out of this war will be very different from the one that went into it.
Jad told the Al-Hurra website that “we are at a turning point, not in the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, but in all the circumstances surrounding him, if his assassination had happened under normal circumstances, he would not have has made a difference, but the destruction of the south, the assassination of leaders, the activities of the occupation, and the discontent within Lebanon, this… All this means that his assassination is a “programme of going sunset Hezbollah.”
This means that it will be exposed to gradual erosion and weakening of its capabilities until it is disarmed, perhaps by being integrated into the army or internal security.
He points to a similar experience in Iraq, which was the integration of the Popular Movement Forces into the government, and although it was not completely successful, at least the Movement Forces have now taken care of accounts the state of Iraq.
This means that it is possible to control the individual decisions of Hezbollah, which has an independent communication network, a special wing at Beirut airport that is not under surveillance, which has areas completely under its control in the south, and whose weapons are stronger than the army, according to them.
Al-Shoubaki says that what will help make it more likely that Hezbollah will be more moderate is “the ability of the United States to put pressure on Israel, to establish a cease-firein Gaza, and to end its put a civilian plight that affected the conscience of the world. “
Al-Shoubaki believes that ending the Gaza war will increase the chances of him becoming more moderate as pressure within the party increases.
If there is a peaceful path, this will help to withdraw funds from the massive public support for the armed groups, “so the energy of the public that supports Hamas or Hezbollah will go to economic and political development and the construction project. the Palestinian state and not to support the armed forces or carry out military operations.”
2024-09-29 15:55:12
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