The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned EU leaders not to be pleased with the recent hot weather and high gas reserves this year. For most of this year, the EU still has Russian gas supply and next year Russia’s gas supply may drop to zero and Chinese LNG demand will increase next year and there will be. more competition from buyers in Europe.
While everyone is still worried about the deepening energy crisis in Europe this winter, the international energy agency (IEA), the world-renowned energy agency, has raised the alarm on the situation of natural gas supply in Europe. next year, calling on EU Leadership to avoid the next winter’s offer gap.
On Thursday 3 November, local time, energy expert and IEA leader Fatih Birol, presenting the IEA report on the supply and demand situation 2023-2024, warned EU leaders not to relax their vigilance due to the recent drop in oil prices, but to act quickly to ensure that they do not come this winter, but next winter’s supply. Birol said:
“This winter may not be as busy as we feared a few months ago, but that doesn’t justify complacency for next winter.”
“Risks loom … We think the natural gas market will remain tense and volatile. This is a wake-up call for the coming winter as we believe immediate action is needed now to avoid a shortage next year.”
To meet this winter’s demand, EU countries have now increased overall gas storage to 95% capacity, 5% more than in the same period over the past five years. European natural gas futures fell sharply in October, with a cumulative decline of at least over 30%, of which British natural gas futures fell by around 40%.
But the IEA report argues that next year’s challenges may be even greater, with the recent heat leaving Europe at risk of complacency. The IEA forecasts point to problems for next year, with a supply shortage of 30 billion cubic meters by next summer. Given the challenges of inflation next spring, by next year, European gas storage could represent only 65% of the storage capacity.
The IEA is urging EU leadership to reduce demand for natural gas by accelerating investments in energy efficiency, renewable energy and home insulation, as well as switching to heat pumps for heating. Birol also warned that the EU may not be able to get through this winter completely unscathed and that there may also be gas shortages in some regions.
The media pointed out that the difference between this winter and next winter is that for most of this year the EU has access to natural gas imported from Russia. And most analysts predict that Russian gas exports to Europe will be close to zero starting early next year. This will greatly increase the difficulty for EU countries to store natural gas before next winter.
And the IEA warned that the EU could also face further challenges next year to secure an alternative to Russian gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), which Europe has relied heavily on this year.
The IEA predicts that gas supplies could decline further next year if Russia completely stops sending gas from pipelines to Europe. Meanwhile, competition from LNG buyers is likely to increase next year as demand from China increases, which could completely reverse the 20% drop in LNG imports this year.
Chinese demand could account for up to 85% of global LNG additions planned for next year, while Europe will almost certainly have far less Russian gas than it will this year. In the first ten months of this year, the gas supply from Russia to Europe was 60 billion cubic meters. The IEA said it is entirely possible that Russia’s gas supply next year will be less than half that of this year and could drop to zero.
earlier this weekWall Street NewsIt should be remembered that much of the current gas storage in Europe consists of natural gas imported from Russia in recent months, and some of it is exported to Europe due to the reduction in purchases by the main Chinese importer. The executives of some industry giants have warned that the energy crisis will be more severe next winter than this winter. For example, Claudio Descalzi, CEO of the Italian energy giant Eni, expressed concern about the lack of Russian gas supplies:
“This winter we are in good shape. But as we said, the problem is not this winter, but the next (winter) because (by then) we will not have (imported) Russian gas, next year it will be 98% less ( imported), perhaps not at all (imported).
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