Donald Trump’s 20-point victory over Nikki Haley in the South Carolina Republican primary demonstrated not only Trump’s powerful influence on Republican voters, but It also shows that as Trump is about to win the presidential nomination, no Republican leader will be able to win support against him.
The results of this party’s primary election show that there is resistance to him among the voters Trump may need in November, especially among the professional class voters in the suburbs. But so far, Trump has won his first five nominating contests convincingly, a record that has all but wiped out any opposition within the Republican leadership.
Trump defeated Haley in her home state of South Carolina, where Haley served as governor for six years. Just a few weeks ago, Trump defeated the candidate selected by Gov. Chris Sununu (who endorsed Haley) in New Hampshire’s primary and Iowa’s governor in the primary. Kim Reynolds (who supports Ron DeSantis). These results suggest that while governors remain popular, they have little power to persuade Republican voters to resist the gravitational pull Trump has exerted on the party.
Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative group backed by the billionaire Koch family that has spent millions of dollars to support Haley’s candidacy, said on Sunday Tell employees it will stop funding Haley. Politico reported the decision earlier.
While donors have so far funded Haley’s ongoing, long-shot campaign, incumbent Republican officials have stayed away. Besides Sununu, the only other governor to endorse Haley is Vermont Governor Phil Scott.
“This is still Donald Trump’s Republican Party, and that’s what the base wants,” said Gunner Ramer, political director of the anti-Trump Republican Accountability PAC. He was referring to the party’s most loyal voters.
In the expected rematch between Trump and US President Biden in November, this intra-party advantage may not be able to give him points, because the key players will be moderates and swing voters.
Republican pollster Christine Matthews pointed out that many surveys show that Haley would have an advantage over Trump if he faced off against Biden.
“But Republicans don’t care,” Matthews said. “They don’t factor that into their decision. I think they’re convinced that Trump is going to beat Biden, so whether he can win in November is very important to them. Said there was no need to think about it.”
Sununu and other Republican leaders believe that Trump will be unable to win over swing voters and will be in a weak position in the November election. The New Hampshire governor has said Republicans need a candidate with bipartisan appeal to win over independents and even Democratic voters, much like Sununu was elected in 2022 by a nine-point margin over a New Hampshire Democrat. As a senator, he won re-election by 15 percentage points.
According to AP VoteCast’s survey of primary voters, politically independent voters are also one of the groups with the weakest support for Trump. In South Carolina, one-third of independent voters support Trump, and Haley leads this group at 53%. In New Hampshire, Haley had an even bigger advantage, winning the support of 67% of independent voters to Trump’s 30%.
Haley’s advantage among these voters prompted her decision to stay on the campaign trail, despite her poor overall performance. She believes that she will be better if she faces Biden in November, but if Republicans insist on choosing Trump, they may lose again.
“You can’t let a candidate win the primary who can’t win the general election,” Haley told hundreds of supporters gathered in a hotel ballroom in Troy, Michigan, on Sunday night. “Look at those No. 1 candidates. The first few states that had primaries: They can claim that Donald Trump won. I admit that. But he got less than 40 percent of the vote.”
Peter Wehner, who has served in three Republican presidential administrations, said that Trump’s ascendancy has triggered a “hollowing out” of the Trump opposition camp within the Republican Party, and those Republicans who could have resisted the “Trumpization” of the Republican Party have withdrawn. . Wehner no longer considers himself a Republican. Among Trump’s critics, former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney has resigned, and Utah Sen. Mitt Romney is about to leave.
Trump and his allies believe this is a move in a good direction.
In his victory speech last Saturday night, Trump said: “Our party is full of energy like never before.” He also said that the Republican Party has “never been more united.”
The two remaining Republican challengers are facing a round of voting: Tuesday’s primary in Michigan, followed by a separate Republican caucus in Michigan and several smaller nominating contests. Then comes “Super Tuesday” on March 5, with 15 states and American Samoa voting in primaries that are expected to bring Trump close to securing enough delegate nominations. When the Super Tuesday vote count ends, nearly half of the U.S. caucus delegates will be elected.
As Trump moves closer to the nomination, his influence within the Republican Party extends to policy decisions and the party’s infrastructure. Senate Republicans recently abandoned a U.S. border security package that Congress had negotiated for months after Trump opposed any compromise.
A group of younger senators aligned with Trump voted against aid to Ukraine this month as Trump declined to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin and expressed doubts about U.S. commitments to aid NATO allies. Republicans are increasingly opposed to more aid to Ukraine, with a VoteCast survey showing that a majority of South Carolina primary voters oppose further aid (even though nearly three-quarters of primary voters said being a NATO member would be good for the U.S. ).
Both of these points are major policy changes for the Republican Party, which has historically opposed Russian aggression and has now made strengthening U.S. border security a core part of its agenda. “Trump’s imprint on the Republican Party is as great, if not greater, than that of Ronald Reagan,” Wehner said. “That’s saying a lot, because Reagan’s influence on the Republican Party lasted for a generation.”
Trump dominates the Republican Party, which he has reshaped in large part by appealing to working-class supporters who are deeply loyal to him.
An NBC News poll found that about 69% of national Republicans who say they will vote in this year’s presidential primary or caucus do not have a four-year college degree, up from 51% in 2015. The Wall Street Journal was a partner in that 2015 poll.
According to a survey by AP VoteCast, these non-college voters are an increasingly large part of the Republican Party and are a major source of support for Trump: He won 71% of this group’s vote in South Carolina and 71% in New Hampshire. Both state primaries and Iowa’s intra-party elections won more than 60% of such voters.
In contrast, Haley is more favorable among college-educated voters, who make up a shrinking share of the Republican Party. In the NBC poll, college-educated voters accounted for a smaller share of Republican primary voters. The proportion has dropped from 49% in 2015 to 31%.
In South Carolina, Haley won the support of 48% of college-educated voters, essentially evenly matched with Trump among this group. But half of Haley’s votes came from voters with four-year college degrees, who accounted for just over 25% of Trump’s votes, showing Haley’s reliance on this group.
National polls also found that compared with 2015, more Republican primary voters describe themselves as conservatives and fewer consider themselves ideologically moderate. In the early nominating race, Trump dominated among conservatives, while Haley won the majority of moderate voters in New Hampshire. In South Carolina, it’s the same story: 73% of conservatives support Trump and a majority of moderates back Haley.
“It’s obvious why Trump did so well because he created a base of voters,” Ramer said.
Wehner said the demographic shift within the Republican party began before Trump’s rise in politics but solidified after he won the presidency. “Now, it’s his party – a Trumpian party through and through,” he said. “
The Republican primary showed the divide between professional and working-class voters, and to some extent urban and rural voters, that characterizes the national electorate as a whole. While Trump dominates, the divide also raises some red flags for the former president, who, while successfully appealing to working-class voters, may also alienate too many higher-income, college-educated and typically residing voters. voters in the suburbs whose support he will need in the November election.
In South Carolina’s Republican primary, 16% of Republicans said they would be so disappointed if Trump wins the nomination that they would not support him in November, a potential red flag that he may It is difficult to unite the support of the whole party. About 20% and 15% of Republicans in the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries respectively said they would not support Trump in the general election.
Another red flag: Trump lost to Haley in two of South Carolina’s three most populous counties (Charleston and Richland) and Beaufort County. These three counties are the only ones in the state where residents with college degrees account for at least 40% of the adult population. AP VoteCast found that Trump trailed Haley both among voters with graduate degrees, typically professional-level workers, and among voters with household incomes of $100,000 or more.
At the same time, about 42% of voters who supported Haley said they voted for Biden in 2020, indicating that these voters may have chosen not to support Trump in the 2024 election.
Trump lost the overall vote to Haley in the three counties mentioned above, which the nonpartisan American Communities Project called “military outposts” because of their large military presence. For example, Beaufort County is home to the Marine Corps Recruit Depot at Parris Island. Some states scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday, such as Georgia, also have large military presences.
Trump had mocked Haley’s husband, Michael, during the campaign for not participating in the campaign. Michael Haley is currently on a mission in Africa with the South Carolina National Guard, something Haley often mentioned in his campaign speeches.
Trump is also taking over the Republican Party infrastructure. Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel is expected to step down after the South Carolina primary and endorse Trump’s backed replacement, North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Michael Whatley, to take over. Whatley needs to win approval from the 168 members of the Republican National Committee. Trump also endorsed his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, as co-chair of the Republican National Committee.
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2024-02-26 05:05:00
