The campaign duel between the US President Donald Trump and his rival Joe Biden masters all TV programs and the headlines of the major newspapers. However, much less attention is paid to a power struggle that is almost as important. The battle for the majority in the US Congress, especially in the Senate.
The background is quickly explained: The majority of the Senate has been the central power instrument of the President and the Republicans for years. Now this majority is in danger. At the same time as the presidential election on November 3, a third of the senators were newly elected, most of them Republicans. All members of the House of Representatives are also available for election, but there is generally renewed success for the Democrats Nancy Pelosi expected.
The Trump party currently has a 53 to 47 vote advantage over the Democrats in the Senate. This enables them to decide important personal data, block laws or torpedo investigations into possible abuse of power in the government, as recently in the Ukraine affair. Now the Republicans have to defend 23 seats, while the Democrats only have twelve.
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The Democrats are hoping that they can conquer a number of Republican seats. In Colorado, Maine, Arizona and North Carolina they think there are opportunities because the Republican candidates there are weak compared to the Democrats. The survey institutes have also been showing in Georgia and Montana good numbers for the democrats. Four to five victories could be enough for the Democrats to turn the majority. On their side, only the Senate seat applies Alabama as endangered, maybe still Michigan.
No wonder the Democrats are doing everything they can to turn the Senate around. They deliberately present moderate candidates in the competitive states that could also be chosen by supporters of the Republicans. Major donors to the party invest millions in new stars like the former astronauts Mark Kellyin Arizona polled 13 percentage points ahead of the incumbent Republican senator Martha McSally lies.
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When they see these numbers, there is growing fear among Republicans that they can actually lose their majority. You would then hardly have any design options in Washington.
The loss of the Senate majority would also be a horror scenario for Trump. In the end, he might be able to keep the White House, but it would be completely walled in – by a Democratic House of Representatives and a Democratic Senate. Only the vote out is worse for a president.
Does Trump’s political future depend on Montana?
The race has of course not yet been decided. Republican candidates in most states have closely linked their fate to that of the President. They are betting that Trump will continue to be popular with their voters and want to defend their Senate seats in his slipstream. That is why they praise and praise the President at every opportunity. For example, Senator Thom Tillis in North Carolina, who likes to emphasize that Trump “did a great deal” in the corona crisis.
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Trump’s adulation can work, but it is not a guarantee of success. It would also be possible for voters to split their votes. That would be conceivable, for example, in Montana. Trump is a kind of people’s hero in the northwestern state, winning the 2016 election by 20 percentage points. However, the Senate race is considered narrow because the Democratic candidate Steve Bullock is also very popular in Montana. He has been governor there so far.
In the end, voters in Montana could vote differently: in the presidential race they stick to Trump, in the Senate to Bullock. In the best case for the Democrats, the Senate majority of the Republicans would be gone – and Trump would be walled in. See above.
Campaign Figure of the Week…
… is Lara Trump, the wife of Eric Trump, the President’s second son. While Eric’s main job is the Trump Real Estate empire, his wife Lara is part of the President’s campaign team. The trained TV editor has taken on a rather strange role. Once a week she produces and hosts a TV show for the Internet, which is “Real News Update” is called.
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The show is a series of praises for Donald Trump and is reminiscent of state television in the former GDR, but with more color and fancy.
The opposition Democrats are always corrupt or incapable of Lara Trump, just like the “mainstream media”. Only the president is always right. Naturally. You shouldn’t smile at Lara Trump and the show anyway. Every week, she reaches hundreds of thousands of viewers via Facebook and YouTube, who use this “news” to form their opinion. For real.
That’s what the polls say
On average across all national polls, Democratic candidate Joe Biden remains well ahead of incumbent Trump. The website RealClearPolitics sees Biden at 48.4 percent, Trump at 43.7 percent.
This is not nice for Trump, but there is also a good poll message for the president. What is particularly interesting is a commissioned survey of the transmitter CNN. When asked who they would rather trust in economic policy, Biden or Trump, a clear majority voted for Trump. He holds a lead of twelve percentage points on the topic compared to Biden.
This can mean two things: If the majority of the voters only think of their wallets, Trump wins. If not, Biden wins.
The social media moment of the week
Since Trump announced he has been taking prophylaxis against that Corona virus the middle Hydroxychloroquine the devil is going on in social networks like Twitter. The Fox News presenter caused a sensation Neil Cavuto, who warned his viewers in a comment not to do the same as the President.
He repeated what many experts also say: hydroxychloroquine can be fatal. Now Cavuto is celebrated for it – and attacked. Trump personally was furious: “Fox News now has more anti-Trump people than ever,” the president complained in a tweet. “I’m looking for a new station.”
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Our US stories of the week
I would like to recommend these two stories from our US campaign team of the past few days:
I wish you a nice week!
Cordially
Yours Roland Nelles
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