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Donald Trump – The gloomy verdict of the experts on Trump

NEW YORK (Dagbladet): Donald Trump didn’t have a good week. On Monday, he released a furious statement when the FBI ransacked his home, Mar-a-Lago, Florida. It is said that they were looking for confidential documents that Trump may have illegally stored. The former president himself believes the whole thing is a political witch hunt.

– These are dark times for our country when my beautiful home in Mar-a-Lago is now besieged, searched and occupied by a large group of FBI agents. This has never happened to a US president before, Trump wrote in a statement.

Trump is now being investigated for possible violations of the Espionage Act due to the possible withholding of the sensitive document. The FBI found top-secret and top-secret documents at Trump’s residence and, according to the Washington Post, they would search for documents relating to nuclear weapons.

Much of the Republican Party also followed through with statements of support for Trump and came out with harsh outcomes against Democratic Attorney General Merrick Garland and the FBI. The completely unprecedented event created a violent fury among Trump’s staunchest supporters.

– Trump has built a reputation for defying elites. The FBI’s search makes him a persecuted victim in the eyes of his followers. They are very excited by this. At the same time, he is losing consensus among more moderate Republicans and independent voters. Especially suburban women, who are a very important electoral group, are fed up with Trump and scandals, Democratic opinion polling expert and history professor John Zogby told Dagbladet.

– Probable crime

He believes research shows Trump is one step closer to being accused of criminal acts.

– There’s obviously smoke here. If there is also a fire, the documents will show. Regardless, the courts and Attorney General Merrick Garland believe it is likely that a crime was committed and a search was required. Many on the left in American politics have been deeply frustrated by Garland and accused him of not pursuing Trump, Zogby says.

ELECTIONS ?: On Tuesday, August 9, Donald Trump posted a cryptic video on his social media Truth Social. The video may resemble an election campaign video.
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The historian and opinion poll expert has followed American politics for many decades. A lot is happening with Trump for the first time.

– I can explain it, but it’s still very hard to believe that all of this is happening. We have had great challenges to American democracy in the past even with the civil war and Watergate. But what is happening now is on a tremendous order of magnitude. Challenge the institutions tens of millions of Americans rely on to stay safe, says Zogby.

HARD TO BELIEVE: History professor and pollster John Zogby believes Donald Trump is one step closer to being accused after the Mar-a-Lago research.  Photo: Vegard Kristiansen Kvaale / Dagbladet

HARD TO BELIEVE: History professor and pollster John Zogby believes Donald Trump is one step closer to being accused after the Mar-a-Lago research. Photo: Vegard Kristiansen Kvaale / Dagbladet
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In addition to research in Florida, Trump is also surrounded by a wide range of other legal problems. He was due to appear on Wednesday for questioning in New York, where his company is under investigation.

– Live with the consequences

– Research incites Trump’s top voters. This plays into their sense that they and Trump are victims of the elites. Much of what Trump and his movement do with him is driven by bitter anger, Rutgers University political science professor Ross Baker tells Dagbladet.

Trump is the first US president to ever have his home searched by the FBI.

– Trump has broken down so many barriers. No other president in American history could ever be accused of attempting to overthrow the country. The enormity of what Trump did on January 6 puts him in a completely unique position, unlike any other American president. He now he lives with the consequences of what he did, says Baker.

NIGHTMARE: Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University, doesn't think Trump has any chance of winning the presidential election again.  Photo: private

NIGHTMARE: Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University, doesn’t think Trump has any chance of winning the presidential election again. Photo: private
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At the same time, there were many Trump opponents who were happy with the research.

– The research was uplifting for all who wanted to see that Trump is properly investigated. But at the same time it created tremendous anger among Trump’s loyal followers, David Birdsell tells Dagbladet.

He is a professor at Kean University and an expert in political communication.

– Extreme candidates

Birdsell also believes the research will make it more difficult for Republicans to secure the electoral victory they hope for in November’s mid-term elections.

– Opinion polls are clear enough that Republicans are less likely to hold early elections. I also think we can count on Trump announcing even before the midterm election that he will run for president, Birdsell says.

TO ARGUE: On the morning of January 6, former President Donald Trump is said to have had a heated telephone conversation with then-Vice President Mike Pence. Video: AP
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He believes there are three main reasons why this fall’s elections are unlikely to be as good as Republicans thought recently.

– They nominated extreme candidates. The decision of the Supreme Court on abortion. Furthermore, the Democrats have achieved several major political victories in recent weeks. At the same time, Republicans have done several strange things that turn voters away from them, Birdsell says.

Trump has long flirted with the idea that he will run for the presidential election again in 2024. Many believe he will announce his candidacy even before the midterm elections. It could lead to a historically unprecedented situation if Trump is actually accused.

– Play the victim

– Then we could have a situation where a presidential candidate walks around accused of crimes. Trump is at his best when he can play the victim, and that could give him a totally unique opportunity to play the victim, says Zogby.

SCARY: Kean University professor David Birdsell describes it as terribly scary for the whole world if Trump is re-elected president.  Photo: private

SCARY: Kean University professor David Birdsell describes it as terribly scary for the whole world if Trump is re-elected president. Photo: private
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Republicans are still ready to take control of the House of Representatives. They can also gain control of the Senate. But their lead in the polls appears to be diminishing. However, ahead of the midterm elections, it could be bad news for other Republicans if it’s all about Trump.

– Trump’s armor is getting rusty. He is surrounded by a lot of problems now, says Zogby.

Baker believes Trump plans to run for president shortly before the midterm elections.

– He personally wants to take credit for a possible Republican election victory, Baker explains.

divided republicans

At the same time, he points out that the Republican party is divided and that many are terribly tired of Trump and all the scandals.

– At least 20 percent of registered Republican voters will not vote for Trump as president. They might not vote for Biden, but they don’t want Trump as president. At the same time, Democrats are experiencing that many of their constituents are now starting to mobilize, among other things, following the Supreme Court’s abortion decision, Baker says.

He believes more and more people within the Republican Party are fed up with Trump and want a new face.

– They don’t want to continue contesting the election in 2020. They want to talk about other topics, but it won’t work as long as Trump is there and as long as the most loyal supporters continue to step down. Many see this as some kind of sick obsession within the party, Baker says.

– No chance

Neither Zogby, Baker, nor Birdsell believe Trump will actually be able to win the presidential election in 2024 if he becomes the Republican candidate.

– There is no chance he can win the presidential election in 2024. All the baggage he carries with him is so toxic. Most Americans don’t want to relive all of this, Baker says.

– What do you think Trump’s second presidency will be like if he really wins?

– It will be Mussolini. Something completely unthinkable must happen for Trump to win this. Now I can’t imagine the circumstances that lead him to win, but of course it’s quite possible to come up with nightmare scenarios for 2024.

Birdsell also describes it as a scary scenario should Trump become president again.

– We can already see how the circle around him is planning this. And they will likely do enormous damage, especially to the American bureaucracy. They have already announced that they have 25,000 loyal MAGA supporters ready to enter the bureaucracy. The changes are likely to be much larger than we have seen in the 2017-2021 period. It will be authoritarian and explicitly undemocratic. It’s a terribly scary prospect for both Americans and the rest of the world, Birdsell says.

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