Voters brave sub-zero temperatures on Monday to launch the Republican Party’s primary elections to choose its candidate for the presidential election battle, in popular assemblies in the state of Iowa, which will serve as the first test to see whether Donald Trump is indeed the most likely candidate to grab the nomination ticket.
With his clear lead in the opinion polls, the former president is expected to easily win the nomination of the American Midwestern state in the first nationwide ballot, to run in the elections against President Joe Biden in November.
But Iowa voters will have to brave some of the coldest weather during a presidential campaign in modern times, with storms, blizzards and temperatures expected to reach 32 degrees below zero.
Trump and his main rivals, Nikki Haley and Rod DeSantis, were forced to cancel their rallies in their states, at a time when questions about the size of participation on Monday were added to the curiosity related to an unknown election campaign.
But despite canceling three rallies, Trump is expected to hold an event on Sunday in Indianola, south of Des Moines.
In parallel with his significant lead in the polls, impeachment proceedings have been launched against Trump four times since his last candidacy, and he is being tried in New York in a civil suit on charges of financial fraud.
Political analyst Alex Avitum, who worked on Republican John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2008, said: “If DeSantis’s significant field efforts, coupled with Nikki Haley’s recent advance, are able to push Trump several points below 50 percent, that will be the first meaningful indication of the possibility of Trump’s defeat.” “.
He added, “But the reality of the paradigm shift, that is, the possibility of defeating Trump, will not happen unless others in the arena unite behind one anti-Trump candidate.”
Weak indicator
For all the talk of surprises, Iowa’s elections are far from competitive. A new poll conducted by NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom showed that Trump received the support of 48 percent of potential participants in the popular councils (Cox), and Haley advanced to second place, but with a support rate that did not exceed 20 percent.
“I will vote for Trump again,” truck driver Jeff Nicholas, 37, told AFP, adding that the former president “may be stubborn, but he is really capable of getting things done.”
The poll results brought more bad news for Florida Governor DeSantis, whose support rate did not exceed 16 percent, and it is believed that his hopes of winning the Republican nomination are weakening in front of Haley.
But DeSantis insisted Sunday that his “very passionate” supporters would turn out in sufficient numbers, despite the cold weather, to maintain his position in a vote open only to registered Republicans.
He told ABC that in 2016, only 186,000 Iowans participated in the People’s Assembly, and “now, in this weather, the number may be much lower,” which makes turnout critical. He addressed his supporters, “Bring your families and friends, this will have a big impact.”
For her part, the former governor of South Carolina is seeking to consolidate her position to compete with Trump when she heads to her favorite state, New Hampshire, the following week.
It is known that Iowa does not predict the final candidate, but it is considered crucial to narrowing down the field of competition and a starting point for the next electoral battlegrounds, which includes the state from which Haley comes from.
Following his defeat in 2016 and his absence from a large part of the election campaign in Iowa, this time Trump built a remarkable network of “election district officials” to mobilize votes.
In a state that wants to see its candidates live, DeSantis did his best to highlight his campaign, which took him to all 99 counties.
Attraction point
However, DeSantis, a conservative who served in Iraq, will face great pressure to withdraw if he finishes in third place, although analyst Alex Avitum has warned against excluding him.
“Survey participants are not necessarily Iowa caucus participants, while DeSantis’ precinct operations…are run by people at the highest levels who have collected remarkable information about caucus pledges,” Avitum said.
Edward Segal, who previously served as press secretary for Democratic and Republican legislators, stressed the importance of strong field campaigns, pointing to at least nine presidents who toured Iowa by train during their campaigns.
“Campaign trains can still serve as an attraction for voters and the media,” the analyst told AFP.
He considered that a good night for Trump on Monday would be if he “obtained 60 percent or more of the votes.”
A number of candidates who received low support ratings in the polls are also participating in the Republican primaries, including biotechnology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who promised to come in third place but did not qualify for the third televised debate.
Iowa Democrats will also attend Monday caucuses, meetings where local members of a political party attend to register their preferred candidates, but they will vote by mail from January through March.
Biden is expected to comfortably defeat writer Marianne Williamson and Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips.
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2024-01-14 17:57:58
