Investigation Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted the governor of Central Java Pranow Award dominated a series of presidential candidate (candidate) eligibility simulations, but lost head to head against the governor of DKI Jakarta Anies Baswedan.
CSIS ran three simulations of potential names in the presidential candidacy in the 2024 presidential election. The three simulations featured 14, 7, and three names, respectively.
From all of these simulations, the PDIP politician has outgrown all names including two other potential names, namely Anies Baswedan and Prabowo Subianto.
ANNOUNCEMENT
Swipe to resume content
–
In the simulation of 14 names, Ganjar excels with an eligibility of 25.9%. He is far ahead of Prabowo in second place with 19.2% of eligibility and Anies with 18.1%.
While in the simulation of 7 names, the governor of Central Java was superior with 26.9%. Followed by Prabowo with 20.1 percent in second place and Anies with 19.9 percent.
While in the third simulation, with three names, Ganjar’s eligibility reached 33.3%. Followed by Prabowo in second place with 27.5 percent and Anies in third with 25.7 percent.
Reward the losing duel against Anies
Despite losing in all simulations, Anies was noted for being superior in duels head to head against Ganjar who dominates in all simulations.
DKI Jakarta Governor excels with eligibility reaching 47.8%. He was four percent ahead of Ganjar who pocketed 43.9 percent.
The head of CSIS’s Department of Politics and Social Change, Arya Fernandes, said Anies received votes from respondents who had previously chosen other names.
“Why did it happen this way? Because there was a shift in voter support from previous candidates, if it came from Pak Prabowo voters, Mas Sandi and Pak Ridwan voters of all kinds,” Arya said. .
As for the fourth and fifth positions in the simulations, there were Ridwan Kamil, Sandiaga Uno, and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) with eligibility in the 2-17 percent range.
The CSIS survey was conducted from 8 to 13 August 2022 on respondents aged 17 to 39 who were presumed to be young voters. Sampling using multistage random sampling to 1,200 respondents in 34 provinces. Margin of error up to +/- 2.84 percent with a 95 percent confidence level.
(thr / gil)
–
