Does Trump know what he will do in the end? I doubt it

It is understandable. I am referring to the interest in knowing as soon as possible the decisions that Donald Trump will make, when he begins on January 20, 2025, and for the next four years, he will assume the presidency of the United States.

Examples: if we knew that Trump would double the tariff that the United States would apply to the import of striped shirts from China, we would do good business by importing a good portion of the product now; If we knew that Trump was installing an air base outside of Columbus, Ohio, we would do well to buy land for the production and sale of fast food.

But I don’t know anyone who knows this and maybe even President Trump himself is not clear about it. therefore Analysts are not talking about what the president of the United States is going to do, but about what he might do. Which are two very different things.

The same thing happens to me when the price of the dollar rises in Argentina. Journalists ask me why it went up. I answer that I do not know, because I did not study customers, but I can answer “why it could have gone up”, which is not the same.

Trump was already the president of the United States between 2017 and 2021. How useful is the past to think about the future? In this boring and dramatic world, maybe for very few. History, both local and international, convinced me of the importance of location in the design and implementation of practical public policies. There is an eternity between now and January 20, 2025.

To what extent is the personal connection between the presidents of the countries important to achieve concrete things? In Argentine history I remember the cases of Arturo Frondizi-John Fitzgerald Kennedy, Carlos Saúl Menem-George Bush (father), and Mauricio Macri-Donald Trump. The relevant question is due to the relationship between Javier Gerardo Milei and Donald Trump.

Answer: Personal connection is important, but let’s not overdo it. It was very suitable for Macri when he had to manage the IMF support in 2018; He stayed at the level of negotiations, as far as Frondizi was concerned; I don’t know how important it was in Menem.

Argentina today bases its economic policy on a fiscal-financial balance, which has been a very effective tool. The personal connection between Milei and Trump, if it works, is more like yapa a key factor in today and in the future of our country.