/ world today news/ “The idea that Vladimir Putin has unleashed a food war with the whole world is becoming more and more popular in the West. For now, however, it seems far from reality to me,” wrote Andrey Sizov, CEO of Sovekon, on his Telegram channel. And he continues: “the politicians who are talking about this probably have no idea what will happen if the Kremlin decides to do this. The importance of Russia to the world balance of grain, or rather wheat, in the new season is likely to be unprecedented. According to our estimates, it will represent more than 20% of the world trade in wheat, which will simply be impossible to replace if the Kremlin decides to stop exports. In this case, we will be talking about an increase in prices from the current already record levels and an increase in the number of starving people in the world, not by tens of millions, but by hundreds”.
Three months after the start of the WHO and the corresponding multilateral economic pressure on Russia from the West, it is already obvious that our country as a whole is winning the economic war. GDP growth in the first quarter amounted to 3.5%. The budget surplus is more than a trillion rubles. The foreign trade surplus is $190 billion and growing rapidly. Ruble gains strength: The dollar fell below 60 rubles on the stock exchange amid rising gas payments under a Kremlin-sponsored scheme agreed to by roughly three-quarters of European gas buyers. Sales of oil and gas in the east are growing actively. Bloomberg reports that, according to its information, a long-term deal is being prepared with China, which should increase oil sales to China by 20-40%. The food market, as mentioned above, this year to an even greater extent than before will depend on Russia. And even Kherson region has not yet gathered with us! It seems that the West really has something to worry about.
Under these conditions, it is not at all surprising that foreign companies are reluctant to part with the Russian market. Against the background of the chaos that reigns in the world economy, the Russian consumer market may turn out to be one of the most stable. Several European clothing brands simultaneously announced their return to Russia under different names last week. Chinese automakers have expressed willingness to produce their cars at the Moscow site. Our Ministry of Industry and Trade reassures that it is negotiating with cosmetic brands that have left Russia.
The success of this economic blitzkrieg is alarming because we can forget about the work that is always postponed for other, even more difficult times – building a full-fledged industrial system with production chains deeply integrated into our economy. All medium-sized businesses of Russia are waiting for this and continue to wait, but so far we do not see any sectoral programs for consistent import substitution. On the contrary, we see active attempts either to return everything to its place or to replace one import with another.
At the same time, it should be understood that there are no industries in Russia – from oil to textiles – where there is no objective need (based on international comparisons) to replace from a quarter to a third of the parts imported into the industry. In the second issue of this year, we made estimates of the investment required to carry out active import substitution in excess of the already existing background flow of investment. This addition amounted to only 2-4 trillion rubles per year. Why “only”? Because if we convert the lost reserves ($360 billion) into rubles and divide them by seven years (the period they accumulated), then we will find that every year we put aside, as it turned out in a cracked box, even more, what was needed for consistent import substitution.
Now all that money has been taken from us, but nothing has happened to us. So it’s not about money. And in what? It seems to us that in the Russian elites lives some deep disrespect for their own Russian civilization. Maybe it always was. Interrupted briefly, then by the reforms of Peter I, then by the grandiose economic plans of the Soviet Union. It seems that only in these two eras did the Russian elite consciously strive for broad material and technological leadership in the world.
And no matter how comfortingly the numbers on the ruble/dollar board burn, we must remember: we do not know how to produce complex special equipment for road construction, we hardly have our own high-quality motor fuel, we do not grow durum wheat, we do not produce silk either, neither wool nor buttons, we have our own fine chemistry to make high quality medicines and cosmetics. It shouldn’t be like that.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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