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–Tore Nyhamar
Chief Researcher, Norwegian Armed Forces Research Institute
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For Norway, Putin’s principles could mean that our freedom of action is limited, writes Tore Nyhamar. If the analysis of Putin’s interests is correct, tomorrow’s crisis may affect not only Ukraine but also our own part of Europe.
Chronicle
This is a chronicle. Opinions in the text are at the writer’s expense.Putin has ordered large numbers of tanks, cannons, planes and soldiers to the border with Ukraine. He can use them to invade the land, in whole or in part. If so, why has he given the Ukrainians and NATO so much time to prepare for a military defense?
The answer is obviously that Putin is primarily using his military apparatus to threaten political advantages. Putin can hope to achieve his goals without the use of weapons.
As the great military strategist of the 19th century Carl von Clausewitz pointed out: The conqueror always comes with peace, he wants nothing more than to open the city gate and let him in without a fight.
Limited Norwegian freedom of action
We do not know Putin’s thoughts in detail, but both Americans and Europeans agree that he primarily wants a symbolic break with the order that was established in Europe in the 1990s, after the Cold War.
Authorities in both the United States and Europe believe he will replace the system we have lived with in recent decades, with an order that recognizes Russia’s neighborhoods as a sphere of interest where Russia has the right to shape the countries that lie there, with a strong, governing hand.
For Norway, Putin’s principles could mean that our freedom of action is limited.
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This will mean a clear violation of the principles of international law on non-interference and with the human rights of those who live there. For Norway, Putin’s principles could mean that our freedom of action is limited.
Need three things
Although the United States and Europe have a similar understanding of Putin’s goals, there are differing views on what he is willing to do to achieve them.
The United States has primarily wanted to prevent Russian acts of war. In Europe, there is concern about a hybrid strategy in which the threat of use of military force is supplemented by cyber attacks, information manipulation and threats to stop the flow of oil and gas to Europe.
Europeans fear that division is a goal in itself for Putin, within Europe and between Europe and the United States. Putin’s hybrid strategy may be a means to an end. Indefinite security threats and energy shortages affect European countries differently, while a war would rather unite Europe and the United States.
If the analysis of Putin’s interests is correct, tomorrow’s crisis may affect not only Ukraine but also our own part of Europe. Are we prepared for such a complicated threat?
We will first and foremost need three things in such a crisis: a strong defense, reliable allies and societal toughness.
Development in the way we think
The Armed Forces has taken great strides since 2014. Planning has been updated, departments have been filled up and trained for domestic tasks, and gaps in the structure have been closed.
Many elements in the Armed Forces have gone from being empty shells with little combat capability to having good operational status. This is all well and good, but the crucial thing is whether, in addition to these traditional defense tasks – which must be solved – we are able to integrate the new ones.
The way we think about security has evolved. In the FFI report Scenario classes for defense planning from January 2022, three such changes are included. Everyone seems relevant in Ukraine now:
(1) A tendency to merge military and non-military means, as (2) gives rise to international conflicts in the gray zone between war and peace, and leads to (3) a weaker distinction between external and internal security.
These development features are included in the scenarios we currently use as a basis for long-term planning of our defense. But what has happened in security policy?
Important, new item
Politically, NATO membership is still the foundation on which we build our defense. In recent years, much has been done to strengthen the alliance.
This is important, not least because the kind of military-political pressure that Russia exerts on Ukraine can quickly fall below the threshold for Article 5 (which obliges all allies to defend each other if attacked). Especially if Russia deliberately tries to do so.
An important, new element in Norwegian security policy is also Nordic co-operation (here between Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden). This does not replace NATO, but complements the alliance in a way that strengthens it militarily and politically in Northern Europe.
Geographical proximity creates common interests and means that military capabilities are at hand where they are needed. Resisting Russian pressure that restricts which political choices we can make, which partners we can work with, or which climate policy we should pursue, are the interests of the Nordic countries.
Similarities in the Nordic countries
The trilateral agreement on increased operational co-operation between Finland, Norway and Sweden from 2020 is an expression of the strengthened defense co-operation in the Nordic region. At the same time, the co-operation gives a strong political signal of unity, which strengthens NATO and makes it easier to get Allied help.
The Nordic countries view developments in our part of the world equally. Everyone believes that the security situation in Northern Europe has become more difficult since 2014, and everyone identifies the development in Russia as the driver for this development.
Military strength is no longer the only thing that counts to protect our society.
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The Nordic countries also share the view that the security situation has become more complex: Military force is no longer the only thing that counts to protect our society. Infrastructure protection, cyber security and preparedness against information operations have been established.
Strength is no longer just how much military and economic power a country can direct externally, but also how much psychological, economic, political and military pressure the country can withstand.
Since 2014, all the Nordic countries have worked to deter an attack by increasing their military capability.
On the right track
Together, we will obviously be stronger militarily than each of us, also because the use of force involving three or four Nordic countries – some in the EU, some in NATO and one in both – will have much greater political consequences than attacks on a country that stands alone.
Not only is the number of planes and soldiers increasing. The number of weapon types and political affiliations is also increasing in number and complexity.
Today we see challenges unfolding in Ukraine that we also need to prepare for even with the necessary military capabilities, plans, what we are practicing and who we are practicing with.
We do not know for sure what we will face in the months and years to come, and we see that our vulnerability is still great. But we are on the right track.
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