The confirmation that Yahya Shinwar, the leader of Hamas and the architect of the October 7 attack, has been killed is Israel’s biggest success in the war in Gaza. Israel’s armed forces and intelligence services had devoted a lot of time and resources to tracking him down but finally, it was leaked, a team of trainee officers stumbled upon him on Wednesday (16/10) in the southern Gaza Strip, near Rafah – in a house and not hiding in an underground tunnel surrounded by hostages.
According to US President Joe Biden and most analysts, Sinwar’s death could bring the end of the war in Gaza closer. The dead Hamas leader is believed to have been in command of military operations in the Gaza war until his death, and his loss is a major blow to the Palestinian organization – more than that of Ismail Haniya, who was assassinated by Israeli intelligence in Tehran in July.
Sinwar expressed the most uncompromising side of Hamas in the truce negotiations with Israel and was among those who refused to capitulate despite tens of thousands of dead and destruction in Gaza. Perhaps the rest of the Hamas leadership is demoralized enough to make concessions at the negotiating table while, on the other hand, Netanyahu could “sell” the killing of Sinwar as a total defeat for Hamas that justifies the end of the war.
President Biden has announced that he will send Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Israel within the next few days to discuss “the next day” in Gaza.
But nothing is certain. In the negotiations, the rest of the Hamas leadership is very likely to continue to demand a permanent truce (while Netanyahu offers a temporary one). But perhaps, unlike Sinwar, the remaining Hamas leadership will more easily agree to hand over power in the Strip to a technocratic Palestinian government as well as accept a “temporary” Israeli military presence in parts of the Strip (while Sinwar demanded a complete withdrawal of the Israelis).
From Netanyahu’s point of view, things are unclear. On the one hand, he promises to let live those Hamas fighters who surrender their weapons and hostages, and on the other hand, he vows to continue the war. Both far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (“We must increase military pressure and strangle the terrifying organization”) and Benny Gantz, head of the National Unity party (” Israeli forces will continue to operate in the Gaza Strip for years.
Ultimately, most analysts in the West and Middle East believe that the ball is in Netanyahu’s hands and that it is up to him whether he seizes the opportunity to stop the war or wants to take advantage of the window of opportunity until the US election. and, confident that until then Washington won’t push hard for a truce before the Nov. 5 polls, choose to crack down harder on what’s left of Hamas.
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