Does Erdogan really want to stop Finland and Sweden from joining NATO?

Turkey is opposed to the admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO. The two Northern European countries are on the brink apply to join the alliance in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine† But Turkish obstruction threatens to throw a spanner in the works. The accession of new member states requires the consent of all existing NATO members. This threatens to create the image of Turkey as Putin’s Trojan horse.

“We are monitoring developments regarding Sweden and Finland, but we are not positive about it,” President Erdogan said at a news conference in Istanbul on Friday. He called the entry of arch-rival Greece to NATO in 1952 a mistake. “We know the Greek attitude towards Turkey with NATO backing. As Turkey, we don’t want to make another mistake like that. In addition, the Scandinavian countries are home to terrorist organizations.”

Gulen Movement

Erdogan believes that Sweden and Finland are too sympathetic to the movement of Islamic cleric Fethullah Gülen, who is blamed for the failed coup in Turkey, and the Kurdish terrorist group PKK. Both countries have granted Gülenists asylum. In addition, Sweden has some Kurdish parliamentarians who sympathize with the PKK. The Swedish government also supports the Syrian branch of the PKK and maintains contact with leaders of the group.

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In response to Erdogan’s comments, Sweden and Finland waited. Support for NATO membership has grown in both countries since Russia invaded Ukraine. Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto urged to go through the process “step by step”. And Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde said she was confident that her country’s membership application would receive unanimous support from NATO members.

The US government also does not want to jump to conclusions. Karen Donfried, the top US diplomat for Europe at the State Department, said in a telephone conversation with journalists on Friday that she is trying to clarify Turkey’s position. She kept quiet and said: “It is not clear to me that Turkey says it will resist.” Swedish and Finnish membership of NATO will be discussed at the NATO meeting in Berlin on Sunday.

Outdated Air Force

The impression that Turkey gives with this is terrible, I think by historicus Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey research program of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank. “Everyone will forget why Turkey objected and will instead blame Ankara for being ‘Russia’s ally in NATO’,” he wrote on Twitter. “There is also a risk that the positive momentum that Turkey has built up in the US since the war in Ukraine is undermined, even undermining the purchase of the F-16s.”

Turkey wants to buy 40 F-16s from the American company Lockheed Martin to maintain its aging air force. The F-16s are an alternative to the F-35, NATO’s new generation of fighter jets, of which Turkey wanted to acquire 100. But the Pentagon put a stop to that because Turkey bought the Russian missile system S-400. Turkey recently won President Biden’s support for the purchase of the F-16s. But Congress is still hesitating.

According to Cagaptay, Turkish diplomats had promised NATO that the dispute over Finland and Sweden would be settled behind the scenes. But Erdogan drew a line through that with his statements on Friday. Perhaps he is trying to force concessions. For example, Sweden and Finland are ending the arms embargo they imposed in 2019 in response to the Turkish intervention in northern Syria. Or that Sweden will stop supporting the Syrian branch of the PKK.

Intervention

It is not the first time that Turkey has interfered with NATO. In 2019, Ankara used its veto to block a defense plan for Poland and the Baltic states in an attempt to force support for its intervention in northern Syria. But after Biden’s election, Turkey withdrew its opposition. This time, however, the damage to Turkey could be greater. Because the other NATO members see Russia as an existential threat and the membership of Sweden and Finland has the highest priority.