Do you think Russia needs a “tactical break” – VG

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When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the capital Kyiv was one of Russia’s main targets. As the weeks passed and Kyiv was still under Ukrainian control, Russia had to give up and move its targets to the east.

But for Russian forces to be able to continue further into Donetsk, the forces need a so-called “tactical break”, according to British intelligence.

Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø explains why:

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– This is because the Russians for several weeks have attacked more or less continuously to take Sievjerodonetsk which is next to the river. Then the forces get tired and need supplies of, among other things, ammunition, crew and fuel. It takes time to get in place. Especially if they are going to cross the river.

Sievjerodonetsk is located in Donbas (which consists of the counties of Luhansk and Donetsk) and British intelligence writes on Thursday that Russia has taken control of most of the city.

On Wednesday, the Luhansk governor wrote on Telegram that around 70 percent of the city has fallen to the Russian invasion forces.

– Take one foot on the ground

To get further into Donetsk, Russian forces must now cross rivers.

According to British intelligence, Ukrainian forces have destroyed the bridges along the Siversky Donets River.

Thus, Russian forces first and foremost need bridge equipment to cross the river, but without Ukrainian forces destroying what they are trying to build, Ydstebø explains.

– They simply have to take a foot in the ground to organize and prepare to cross the river to complete taking Luhansk county.

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If you are going to cross a river in the middle of a war and you are going to have a bridge laid in front of an enemy, you must first clear the other side of the river of enemy forces, Ydstebø explains.

He points to two possible choices for Russia:

Either deny the enemy access or fight the enemy with artillery. The former will be difficult for the Russians because the Ukrainians have proven to have good access to drones. And Ukrainians have previously found the Russians’ various crossing points and been prepared when they think something is going on from the Russian side.

Russia can also choose not to cross the river, but rather try to attack from other cities and thus pinch a pocket at Luhansk, says Ydstebø.

– On the other hand, it is what they have been trying for two months without succeeding.

Loses a lot of time

Russia can lose a lot of time if they choose to attack other cities, instead of crossing the river, according to Ydstebø.

– Up to several weeks, but most realistically maybe around 10 days. It depends on how tired they are and what they have to replace the forces with. If they have healthy wards that can be deployed quickly, they can do it in a small week or less, but there has been some discussion about wear and tear on the Russian side now.

Russia has repeatedly tried to cross the river in the north between the cities of Lyman and Lysychansk, without success.

– Then they were shot to pieces by Ukrainian artillery. River crossing is a key part of getting ahead in Ukraine for the Russians. It will take time to prepare, especially here where the student is close to the city of Lysychansk, where the Ukrainians have established themselves strongly with defense forces.

– Battle for a turning point

A “tactical break” for Russian forces does not mean that Ukraine will do the same, Ydstebø believes.

– The Ukrainians will not sit and twist thumbs while the Russians take this break. Now the Ukrainians have already launched a number of minor counterattacks northeast of Kherson, somewhat in the same way as they attacked to push the Russians out of Kharkiv.

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The war has in the last month been in a phase where there is a battle for the strategic level, says the lieutenant colonel.

– A battle for a turning point, and who will control the further development of the war. Ukraine will now try to lay the groundwork for the continuation of the war.

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