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Appearance in Financial Times The scandalous article about the plan to end the war declared by Russia, which provides for the neutrality of Ukraine, the reduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the granting of some rights to the Russian language, seriously outraged society. And no wonder, because Ukrainians shed blood not only for their land and sovereignty, but also for the right to be full members of the EU and NATO.
Deputy head of the OPU Mikhail Podoliak called the publication of the Financial Times “a draft of the Russian side.” Yes, most member countries Alliance they are very afraid of the Third World War, so they don’t want to help us close the sky from Russian planes and missiles. But lately, the authorities have begun to recognize too abruptly and directly that Ukraine is in NATO won’t take. And the society has quite justified fears, but has the authorities turned away from the course towards the EU and NATO, which is written in our Constitution?
Firstly, in order to officially reverse this course, it is necessary that the Verkhovna Rada, by 300 votes, make appropriate changes to the Basic Law.
Secondly, Will Putin buy our abandonment of NATO in exchange for an end to the war? The answer is unequivocal – no. Because Putin has repeatedly spoken out in favor of “the final solution of the Ukrainian issue”, and this is the termination of the existence of Ukraine as an independent state.
Thirdly, But will there be where to join after our victory over Russia? No wonder they are already joking that NATO needs to join Ukraine.
TSN.etc starts a new column “Ukraine and the world after our victory over Russia”. In the first article, we will analyze how the EU and NATO will change, and whether Ukraine will have where to join after the war.
What’s wrong with NATO
Emmanuel Macron says Russia’s declared war in Ukraine was an electric shock to NATO. However, unfortunately, the Alliance did not emerge from this state of shock. According to Vladimir Zelensky, some members of the bloc are mesmerized by the aggression of the RF. Repeating the mantra that NATO is a political alliance, he never became a military one when the time really came.
Less than a month before the French presidential election scheduled for April 10, Macron did not go back on his scandalous words about the brain death of NATO, adding that France should prepare for a high-intensity war in Europe.
This is not the first of his statements of this kind. One has only to read the comments of ordinary French people about Russia’s war against Ukraine and what happened to the security of Europe. Many people believe that only France, the only one in the EU with nuclear weapons, has a fighting army. Therefore, the French do not really want to send their military to protect, for example, the Baltic countries or Poland, if Putin suddenly attacks them too.
Yes, it should be noted here that both the Baltic States and Poland, as members of NATO, are under the umbrella of Article 5 of the Alliance Charter on Collective Defense, when one for all and all for one. However, according to the political analyst of the Foundation for Democratic Initiatives. Ilka Kucheriva Maria Zolkina, if Russia transfers military operations to the Baltic countries, without ending with a theater of hostilities in Ukraine, with a high degree of probability Article 5 may not work.
“The Baltic countries and Poland are afraid not only of a possible attack by Russia, but also that the NATO countries will not provide more support than they are currently providing to Ukraine. That is, just weapons. And if this war ends conditionally on the territory of Ukraine, I think NATO far away.” In the political alliance (Lublin Triangular, Bucharest Nine) a military component will be added so that, on a geographical basis and political fear of a Russian attack (because Hungary is not very afraid of this, Bulgaria, as always, hesitates to form a new military alliance (Romania, Poland, Czech Republic, countries Baltic countries) without the withdrawal of countries from NATO,” Maria Zolkina comments on TSN.ua.
Therefore, Ukrainians must give themselves an honest answer to the question: do we need an alliance like NATO, which is already bursting at the seams? Of course, the answer to this question must be sought on a “sober” head after the end of the war. But even now it can be stated that if the Alliance does not stop expressing deep concern and does not undertake to help us, the disappointment of Ukrainians (and now 85% of people support joining NATO) is not far off.
in the GTC they say that NATO does not have the power to stop Putin, so Ukraine wants to create a new alliance to end the war. This is also one of the options. The Financial Times also wrote in its scandalous article that Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO seems to be considered only in exchange for security guarantees from the United States, Great Britain and Turkey. The latter even officially stated that it would not mind becoming a guarantor of Ukraine’s security in the future. But how to prevent the signing of the next Budapest Memorandum, which then turns out to be just a fiction?
One step closer to the EU
With the European Union, everything is not as sad as with NATO, but there are some nuances. On February 28, four days after the start of Russia’s large-scale invasion, Ukraine applied to join the EU. The informal Versailles summit of EU leaders last week showed that Ukraine is a member of the European family. Here, perhaps, is the whole summary.
No, we were not denied. However, they clearly indicated that as long as Ukraine is at war with Russia, we will not be admitted to the EU. Who is against our membership right here and now? Germany, the Netherlands and France. Although Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that it was a historic night in Versailles (because the EU leaders really sat until late at night), when they said “yes” to Ukrainian European integration, Volodymyr Zelensky answered quite honestly: this is not what we are waiting for.
In an interview TSN.ua Igor Zhovkva, deputy head of the OPU, said that the Versailles summit was not intended to name a specific date for Ukraine’s accession to the EU. However, some countries do oppose it precisely under the accelerated procedure. While the ball is on the field of the European Commission. She should send us a so-called questionnaire with a list of economic, political, legal and human rights issues. The main conclusion to be drawn by the European Commission is whether Ukraine meets the Copenhagen criteria for EU membership.
“After that, the European Commission forms its opinion. Then the European Council (the leaders of the EU member states) meets and makes an important decision to start negotiations on the Agreement on Ukraine’s accession to the EU. At this stage, the status of a candidate country may appear,” TSN explained. ua Igor Zhovkva.
However, history knows cases when countries were in the status of candidates for admission for decades. Take, for example, Turkey, which filed an application back in 1987, and received candidate status only in 2000. Therefore, here, like NATO, a situation may arise when Ukrainians simply become disillusioned with the European Union. Accession to the EU is supported by 86% of our citizens.
Where is the world going
Is any (peaceful) agreement between Ukraine and Russia possible at all? No. It is impossible to agree with the Kremlin elite somewhere in the middle, because they seek to destroy Ukraine, hiding behind schizophrenic demands such as “denazification”, “disarmament”, etc. Putin’s recent talking head, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov, said: It’s important for Russia that Ukraine recognize “DNR”/”LNR” and Crimea. So Putin started a full-scale war just for this? Something is hard to believe in another lie of the Russians.
The world should honestly admit that the Yalta-Potsdam system of world security, founded after the Second World War, no longer exists. No international structure, including the UN and the OSCE, is no longer capable of preventing and stopping wars. The one who has more power and the latest weapons, including nuclear ones, is right. Never before in the last 80 years has Europe been so close to the start of World War III.
No matter how afraid NATO or individual member countries are to enter into a direct military confrontation with Russia, if Ukraine falls, this is inevitable. After all, Poland, Romania, the Baltic countries, as well as France and Germany, which the Kremlin also threatened with war, could become Putin’s next victims.
In fact, Russia has long been testing NATO’s fortress. At first it was an artificially created migration crisis on the border between Belarus, Poland and the Baltic countries. Now these are Russian drones that fell on the territory of Croatia and Romania. The paradox is that they flew over several NATO countries and went unnoticed, which raises many questions.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who is already head of the Norwegian Central Bank with one foot, does not try very hard to convince the allies to do anything. Although they don’t talk about it publicly, everyone understands perfectly well that the Alliance must be reformed as soon as possible, otherwise it will remain in the dustbin of history, like the USSR and the Warsaw Pact, which Putin loves to remember.
Among the NATO member countries there are different opinions about what the future holds for NATO and the European security system. Some do not want to quarrel with Russia, because they are too dependent on it. Others believe that Russia’s war against Ukraine does not concern them. According to Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, head of the Verkhovna Rada committee on Ukraine’s integration into the EU, the decision-making model should also be changed. Now in the EU and NATO all decisions are taken by consensus. Therefore, it is enough for Russia to have one satellite in the EU or NATO in order to block any priority decision.
“If we return to World War II, when the anti-Hitler coalition was being created, then there were no military-political blocs, but there was a goal to destroy evil. And now again this evil is obvious, which is committing genocide in the center of Europe. The Western world is transforming, tectonic changes. But they, unfortunately, are a few steps behind the actions of Russia. There will definitely be a transformation of the EU and NATO. Weaker or stronger they will depend on how they behave towards Ukraine. If they do not help Ukraine in any way , both organizations will have a sad fate,” says Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze to TSN.ua.
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