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For the Willy Brandt House in Berlin, it is clear who the SPD will run against Friedrich Merz in the federal election: Olaf Scholz. The SPD party headquarters outlined the strategy on slides. There you can see a combative Olaf Scholz, clenching his fist, and a sullen-looking Friedrich Merz. The main idea: “On February 23rd, one question will accompany all voters into the voting booth: Olaf Scholz or Friedrich Merz?”
The party headquarters’ plan: They want to mobilize those 32 percent who can imagine voting for the SPD. “Clear leadership in the center-left camp is crucial for direct confrontation with Merz,” said the directive. This boils down to Olaf Scholz, the experienced crisis manager who “holds Germany together”.
Merz makes the ideal counterpart in the SPD’s world of ideas: no experience in governing or with international politics, plus BlackRock and politics for high earners. The Willy Brand House is aimed at “Merkel voters” and “women” who cannot warm to the brash, arrogant Merz.
It is currently uncertain whether this campaign will be realized. Doubts as to whether Scholz, the failed chancellor of the unpopular traffic light, has a chance against Merz are growing in the party. Many now believe that the SPD would do better with the edgy Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who, unlike the cool Scholz, has a buddy image. Pistorius himself emphasizes that he is a tough military man and a loyal “party soldier” – but on the other hand, he cunningly doesn’t rule anything out.
“Together with the SPD”
Scholz did not take this power struggle seriously for a long time. That changed on Tuesday evening when an influential duo – the party left-wing Wiebke Esdar and the right-wing party member Dirk Wiese – publicly declared their support for Pistorius more or less clearly. The Chancellor heard the signals and responded from the G20 summit in Rio – where he was actually busy with Ukraine, global poverty and a meeting with China’s Xi Jinping – with four TV interviews.
In all of them he repeated like a mantra that he would win the election “together with the SPD”. What this means is: He will compete. However, the word candidate for chancellor did not come to Scholz’s lips. He doesn’t want to proclaim himself, but he doesn’t promote himself either. He clearly expects that the party executive committee will offer him the candidacy. No one who is retreating talks like that.
The party leadership met on Tuesday evening – a crisis meeting. Because one thing is clear: the current situation, in which more and more comrades are publicly doubting Scholz, further reduces the SPD’s not exactly rosy prospects. The party leaders Lars Klingbeil and Saskia Esken, General Secretary Matthias Miersch and Saarland Prime Minister Anke Rehlinger met – and were silent afterwards. Everyone in the SPD’s extended leadership circle has committed to Olaf Scholz as the next candidate for chancellor. Nobody from the party or faction leadership spoke out in favor of Boris Pistorius. In this respect everything should actually be clear. Should.
Schedule: unclear
The question is: Why is there still no official confirmation of the candidacy when there is an overwhelming majority for the Chancellor in the responsible committees? Why is there no binding announcement from the party leadership – at least on Wednesday afternoon – as to when this decision will be made in order to get the debate under control? This fuels the suspicion that the party leadership’s support for Scholz may not be as clear as claimed.
Questions about scheduling are questions of power. Scholz supporters are demanding that the 34-member party executive committee cast a vote for the chancellor on Monday. It should be clear who is running at an “election victory conference” on November 30th at the latest. The formal selection is to take place at the federal party conference on January 11th.
The Willy Brandt House will probably be able to implement its planned election campaign with the Scholz photos. But if not, there would be more urgency. There is no finished campaign for Boris Pistorius in the drawers at party headquarters. He does much better in surveys than Scholz. But what Lower Saxony stands for politically, apart from war capability and more weapons for Ukraine, is vague. It would be a challenge for campaign strategists at party headquarters.
How might Olaf Scholz’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis influence voter perception and support for the SPD?
Introducing our guests for today’s interview:
Guest 1: Anna Smith, a political analyst and expert in German politics with over 15 years of experience. She has closely followed the SPD’s recent developments and regularly contributes to several prominent international media outlets.
Guest 2: Mark Johnson, a journalist based in Berlin who has been covering the German political landscape for the past decade. His insights into the strategies and leadership dynamics within the SPD party are widely respected.
Interviewer: Thank you both for joining us today. Let’s dive right into the discussion. With the upcoming federal elections in Germany, the SPD has been facing some internal challenges regarding their candidate for chancellor. The party has allegedly been planning an aggressive campaign against Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU’s choice for the position. How do you think this strategy will play out, given the current political climate in Germany?
Guest 1: The strategy of placing Olaf Scholz as their strong contender against Friedrich Merz seems quite reasonable at this point, considering Scholz’s experience leading the country during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, it remains to be seen whether Merkel voters will transfer their support to him or not. The SPD needs to convince them that they have a strong and capable leader who can steer Germany through these turbulent times.
Guest 2: That’s true, Anna. However, there are doubts within the SPD party about whether Scholz is the right choice due to his unpopularity among the public. Some argue that Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, with his tough military image and perceived proximity to the working class, would be a better contender. The party must decide whether to stick with Scholz or risk alienating their base by promoting someone new.
Interviewer: That raises an interesting point. There are obviously some factions within the SPD that are not fully committed to Olaf Scholz. What do you think are the reasons behind this, Anna?
Guest 1: Well, Mark, there are a couple of factors at play here. Firstly, Scholz has been criticized for his handling of issues like the energy crisis
