Disgruntled MPs from both main parties may finally be ready to take the plunge and form new splinter groups as Brexit comes to a close.
Theresa May canceled this week’s recess in Parliament but was unable to organize any votes on Brexit or important Commons issues.
It means that “there are going to be a lot of MPs and journalists hanging around Westminster in a belligerent mood wondering why the hell the Prime Minister has made us pretend something big is going on,” says Stephen Bush in the New Statesman.
“As a result, the dominant story will likely be one of divisions: MPs from both parties have been known to look out the door, and without much fallout to speak of, the press will report divisions and schisms,” he said. he writes
ITV political correspondent Paul Brand says that “divisions have been predicted for some time, but on the Labor side we may not have long to wait.”
Many see February 27 as the point of greatest danger for the two main party leaders. MPs will once again have the opportunity to table amendments to the prime minister’s Brexit deal, with a handful of Labor MPs intending to leave the party unless Jeremy Corbyn supports a second referendum.
Among those said to be heading for the door are former shadow chancellor Chris Leslie, former business minister and champion of the popular vote Chuka Umunna, Jewish Labor parliament speaker Luciana Berger and former minister Angela Smith.
According to a plan reported by the Financial Times, “at least one MP will resign to push for a by-election. Winning back his seat under the banner of a new party would show that the group can “win the election”, said one lawmaker. At that point, the breakaway faction would try to persuade other MPs to leave the Labor Party and join them.”
Brand says that “the bigger question is how many more MPs they can snatch away by tapping into three main sources of disillusionment in Labour: Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership and political convictions; the Labor Party’s problems with anti-Semitism; Brexit”.
As always, parallels will be drawn with the decision of four senior Labor MPs in 1981 to break away from the party and create the Social Democrats (SDP). Perhaps appropriately, the problem was, as it is today, the approach of Labor leaders towards Europe,
However, after initial electoral success, the SDP failed to make a breakthrough in the 1983 general election and ended up splitting the Liberal vote and ushering in 15 years of Tory rule.
On the conservative side, there are fears that the prime minister’s negotiating strategy could cause a much bigger schism.
Of the party’s remaining wing, Downing Street fears that Conservatives such as Anna Soubry and Heidi Allen could join up with moderate Labor exiles, who, along with the addition of Lib Dem politicians, “would be seen by many as the nucleus of a new centrist party.” says the Daily Mail.
But by far the biggest threat to the long-term future of the Tory party seems to come from hardline Brexiteers.
The Daily Mirror reported that more than 100,000 people have already signed up for Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party in less than a week. This is just below the total number of members of the Conservative Party; stoking fears of a mass exodus of voters in any future election if Brexit is not implemented.
Over the weekend, The Guardian reported that a Tory donor had registered another new party ready to support a hard Brexit in a snap election.
Jeremy Hosking, the billionaire financier who backed several pro-Brexit Conservative candidates in the last election, said his new party, Brexit Express, would welcome Conservative MPs who want to protest if the prime minister “fails on Brexit”. .
“Can these unhappy spouses coexist in the same political party? The best form of defense is attack,” he said. “We don’t necessarily want the Tory party to split, but it seems to me there are good reasons for doing so.”
2023-05-09 09:43:39
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