Direct Iran-Israel conflict

In forty years, the first direct attack from Iran on Israel was only last April, and the second one was yesterday. Israel vowed yesterday that it would respond, and then we are in the second phase of the conflict between the two regional powers.

For many years, Iran and Israel have been engaged in a dangerous and complex war game.

The Jewish state did not stop developing military capabilities aimed at the day of decisive war, and it was expecting that day with its Western friend.

Iran, on the other hand, has built up military capabilities and built a cordon around Israel through agents in Yemen, Gaza, Iraq, and the most dangerous of them in Lebanon, with the aim of balancing power with Israel and reach a stage in which Iran imposes its regional demands.

Hezbollah made it the most important asset, with about thirty thousand fighters and an arsenal of 120,000 missiles, according to the map of Iran’s targets against Israel.

It is this complex balance that has prevented direct military conflict, as all past wars have been fought between Israel and Iranian proxies.

The events of the past few days gradually revealed their deliberate goals until they were achieved, and that was to finally confront Iran. He was only talking about the area south of the Litani River, then it became clear that the target was south of Beirut and Hassan Nasrallah in particular.

This war is different, with no rules of engagement and no red lines. Israel targeted Hezbollah’s leadership and arsenal directly and inflicted massive destruction. While the 2006 war was aimed at forcing the party to hand over the kidnapped soldiers and their bodies only.

It seems from the reports and rounds of battles that the real aim of this round is to remove Hezbollah from the equation of conflict with Iran, and not to separate it from the Gaza front, or to weaken it ‘ party and his role in Lebanon. These sub-objectives can be achieved within the effects of the war and not because they are among its objectives. Israel is determined to put pressure on Iran with the goal of halting its nuclear weapons buildup and breaking the cordon of militias around it.

The question is, within its plan to confront Iran, can Israel really eliminate the remnants of Hezbollah, its strongest sword, and make Iran naked in the next war?

Naim Qassem says, in the first publication since the killing of his leader, the head of the party Hassan Nasrallah: “Despite the assassination of the cadres, Israel could not affect our ability, and there are options another for each director. ” While Israel claims to have killed half of the party’s leaders and about eighty percent of the main arsenal of the army.

The strength of the party is that it is not a traditional army, and it will be able to survive when Iran decides to continue supporting it.

The next stage, as Israel has announced, is after it has eliminated what it can reach and destroyed the remaining Hezbollah weapons stored throughout Lebanon, to prevent kept him from being brought back to life by removing ammunition supplies. We will see an open war on the part of Israel to stop transport and smuggling activities across borders and airports and to pursue new sites. Iran had built a long transportation network from Iran to Iraq, then Syria, and even Hezbollah sites.

From a different perspective, yesterday’s Iranian attack can be considered a declaration of Hezbollah’s death. He fulfills the role that was the intention of the party.

However, the party, as a local militia, will continue to enjoy technical and material support from Iran and a local popular incubator, and it will be difficult for the Iranian entity that had and commanded an army and arsenal larger than the Lebanese army. and the forces of most Arab countries to return. These Iranian capabilities have been destroyed in recent weeks, with Israel’s advanced military and intelligence capabilities capable of shifting the balance of power against Iran in a way never seen before in the history of the conflict between the two country

Even if the military leaders in Tehran do not tell their leaders the truth, the results will announce themselves, and the battle is long, costly and losing. I am not basing this on the new reality, but also on the voices coming from inside Iran itself that speak of its impotence and suggest that they look for goals as well as Israel.

After the defeat of Hezbollah, Iran has only two paths left: either direct conflict, as it did yesterday, or reach a political solution in the post-US election period, regardless of who who wins.