DILEMMA: Vladimir Putin must decide whether to mobilize now or wait until after the presidential election in March 2024. Photo: MAXIM SHIPENKOV / EPA / NTB
Vladimir Putin (70) needs soldiers – but it could mean trouble for the people if he orders mobilization before the presidential election.
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Therefore, it is a dilemma for Putin what to do, say experts.
Immediately after the so-called “referendums” on whether four areas of Ukraine should become part of Russia in September 2022, Vladimir Putin ordered mobilization. That would give 300,000 soldiers. Last weekend there were local elections in Russia, and there has been speculation as to whether the president would mobilize soldiers now that the election has been decided and Putin’s United Russia party has won. But experts are unsure whether Putin actually dares to collect soldiers now. That it could be too risky. Because in March 2024 there are presidential elections where Putin will secure six new years in the biggest office in the Kremlin.
– Good question, states Peter Viggo Jakobsen at the Danish Defense Academy when VG asks him.
– Militarily, there is no doubt that the Russians need more soldiers. They have been hard pressed by the Ukrainian offensive over the past month. Therefore, from a military point of view, it would make the most sense to mobilize now and get the soldiers trained so that it is ready for spring when the Ukrainians will also be supported by F-16 aircraft, continues the expert.
Vladimir Putin photographed on Victory Day on May 9, 2023. Photo: Gavriil Grigorov / AP / NTB
When Putin mobilized in the fall of 2022, Russian cars were queuing to get out of the country, and the plane tickets were sold out for everyone who wanted to leave.
Mette Skak, Russia expert at Aarhus University, explains the dilemma Putin is in:
– I read that there is a widespread fear in Russian society of a mobilization now, so much so that politicians in the Duma have felt that it has been necessary to reject it as fabrication. But of course there is no guarantee that the mobilization will not come, quite the opposite.
Skak refers to British historian Mark Galeotti’s recent statements:
– I think Galeotti may be right that Putin’s optimal timing is after the presidential election. But: Then it may turn out to be too late militarily, she says to VG.
Putin’s problem is that many wives, mothers and other family members are against their loved ones going to war.
– I have seen that there are now more unhappy families over killed soldiers than before, and there is something about the fact that this year there are 305 times as many websites that have been closed by the authorities as in the whole of 2022. So even if people do not protest openly on the street against Putin, then Russia is slowly on its way to driving itself into a depression.
Military expert Peter Viggo Jakobsen again:
– If Putin is to realize his war goal of conquering the Donbas area, they must use more than 100,000 soldiers. The Russians have lost many soldiers and many of their units are worn out and with poor combat power. The way the Russians fight requires heavy casualties, so they have to use a lot of soldiers to be successful in an offensive.
Weekend newspaper’s Russia expert Andrey Kazankov says in Danish TV 2:
– It could actually have a major influence on the war if Putin mobilizes during the autumn, or if he does so only after the expected re-election in March 2024.
Mark Galeotti states in an article on IntelliNews that Vladimir Putin is not in the same situation as Josef Stalin during the Second World War:
– The political backlash will be enormous. This is not the Second World War, when the Soviet Union faced a genuine and obvious existential threat, and where the Kremlin’s dictates were supported by an experienced, ruthless and massive murder machine, writes the expert – referring to the secret police of the time compared to today’s FSB.
– No matter how repressive the FSB undoubtedly is, it does not have the scale, power and reputation of the Stalin police, writes Galeotti – and believes that today’s FSB officers are more kleptocrats than mass murderers.
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Published: 17.09.23 at 01:35
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2023-09-16 23:36:18
#Putins #dilemma #mobilize #election #late
