Penalty professors have been saying it for some time: the team that first starts a penalty shootout has an advantage. You don’t have to look far for the reason. When the penalty goes in – and that chance is still the greatest – the pressure on the next penalty taker increases.
Extensive studies show that the starting game has a 60% chance of winning the series. The theory is confirmed at this European Championship: the three teams that started a penalty series also won each time (Italy in the semi-finals, Spain in the quarter-finals and Switzerland in the 1/8th finals).
These are figures that Gerard Pique did not miss: “It is no coincidence that the teams that started a series of penalties at the European Championship and the Copa America (where Peru beat Paraguay, ed.) always won”, the Spaniard believes. “It’s not fair that you start with a draw from behind.”
When asked for a solution, the defender points to the known ABBA format. “That way teams take turns alternately.”
In concrete terms: first team A takes a penalty, after which team B is allowed to kick twice, then team A has the turn again twice, and so on. A bit of the system that is used in terms of service in a tiebreak in tennis.
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FIFA already experimented with the ABBA format between 2017 and 2019 at some tournaments. There were 36 instances where the match also ended in a penalty shootout. The answer? In exactly 50% of the cases, the team that was allowed to kick first won.
Still think about it?
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