The mathematician Prof. Nikolai Vitanov gave brief information about the operational situation of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine on May 20, 2022. Here is what he wrote on his personal Facebook profile:
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Brief information on the operational situation for the pandemic of 20 May 2022
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You know that traditionally on holidays he does not give a summary of the situation. so it will be now. The next summary will be on May 25. Before I start, a few comments.
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1. Traditionally, the terrain is provided to the jurists and reviewers of the Gank Cafe. Come on, move me. Inform people about what is happening with the pandemic and how the war is going. Come on, 2 years and 2 months have passed, all me, all me – that’s enough, move me.
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2. Whoever thinks that this information I give is not useful or false or that he can say it, do not read. This is the objective state of affairs. If you don’t like it, don’t read it.
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3. One day this war will end. And you will face new realities. You need to be prepared for them. Why? A smart man said – know yourself, know the enemy and you will not lose in 100 battles. Why is your situation, my idiots and reviewers from Gankovo Café, not good?
How far have you come with jurdic shouts and clumsy reviews? You have failed the pro-Ukrainian propaganda and you have no idea about the situation during this war and in Russia. Roar like Carpathian bears, instead of analyzing things in cold blood. You know neither yourself, understand the Bulgarian people, nor the enemy. Defeats are guaranteed.
To prevent this from happening, I am writing to you on how to fix pro-Ukrainian propaganda and how to understand what is happening in Russia and on the fronts. You roar at me. If you want to show me that Ganyu is a genius, I know. I also have a law on the issue, Ganyu is a genius, and because he is a genius, in the end he is still a genius.
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Your head, in addition to holding your mouth, also contains one thing to think about. So, shut up, my yurts and my cafe reviewers, and think more. So that you don’t lose battles and don’t lose them in the end.
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Now essentially
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As always, first the pandemic, then the war.
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We drive in shape, as we do every day.
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Check the pandemic situation today
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1. The “Blue Summer” scenario is stable – day 5. This scenario is – we have a quiet summer. You know – the goal is to keep it stable for 3 months so that there are no problems in the summer.
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2. General situation – Modified Omicron fails to ignite diffuse spread And so for 50 days.
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Let’s see with numbers what the current situation is.
2. The basic reproductive number – today is 0.60.
The value is very low.
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It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink.
“Blue Summer” is unshakable, the scope of the infection is shrinking rapidly.
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3. Super fire check – no super fire.
Let’s look at some control numbers for today from the diffuse distribution index
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For the country – 0.10
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Sofia-city – 0.14
Plovdiv – 0.09
Burgas – 0.06
Varna – 0.05
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Along the southern borders
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Blagoevgrad – 0.11
Kardzhali – 0.12
Smolyan – 0.12
Haskovo – 0.10
Yambol – 0.10
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We know:
1. Critical value for ignition of diffuse propagation – 1.00
2. Over 1.00 – diffuse spread
3. Below 1.00 – diffuse spread stops or does not exist at all.
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Today, as expected – no problems. The indices are far below 1, there is no diffuse distribution. The sinister professor’s plan to block the spread of the modified Omicron by stopping the diffuse spread is working. It’s been 50 days.
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For information – the indices in several other areas
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Pleven – 0.05
Razgrad – 0.11
Ruse – 0.07
Silistra – 0.11
Sliven – 0.09
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I drive in alphabetical order, in 5 areas every day. As you can see, there are no problems. As sung in the song – the moon continues to sleep. Kovid – the crisis is over. Even today, the virus cannot raise its head. Well, let there be at least one crushed crisis of all that has gotten on our heads.
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3. Check for overcrowding of hospitals. Are there overcrowded hospitals? There is no. Things are under control.
Is the healthcare system turning around about Kovid – the crisis. Rotate it. And he whistles to himself. And today . The occupancy of the beds is tens of times below the maximum capacity. Dozens of times and continues to decline.
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4. Check for total lockdown. Where is the total lockdown?
What was a total lockdown? Tighten the season at sea, summer will be calm. The Blue Summer scenario is stable.
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5. Mortality check. You know, the goal was to increase the number of days the dead would be single digits. The number will increase.
But slowly
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6. Conclusion from the inspection – and today, 50 days after the elimination of the emergency epidemic situation, the situation is calm. “Blue Summer” is a stable, health system
copes with the problems, the goal – to keep the summer calm, is being achieved more and more.
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The diffuse spread is extinguished, the pathetic attempts of the modified Omicron to ignite it fail to one.
And they will still fail. The extent of the infection is shrinking rapidly. Forecast – this will continue. Calm May 24th is coming.
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7. Today – again the risk map. Because there is a change. The areas in green became 27. One remained in yellow. But it is also moving towards the green zone. The Blue Summer scenario is stable.
This is the sinister plan of the sinister professor – the people to spend the summer in peace without problems from the coronavirus.
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All right. Now I take 5 days off from these forecasts. And you rest from me. Let me tell you, lady – there will be peace on holidays. The numbers from the forecasts – from Gank’s cafe and the puddles in front of it. If there are none – we are not surprised. We still have
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Vitanov’s iron theorem: The haters just howl and roar, they can’t give a decent forecast.
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Now for the war.
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We understood each other, my yurts and reviewers from the cafe – this is not for you. You will not read it, because the Carpathian bears also have rights – they do not dare to step here from the mighty roar, they have fled all the way to the Carpathians. So, keep an eye on the Carpathian bears and do not read below.
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1. We have already understood – the war will be long and will develop slowly. Why? As a consequence of the principle of enslavement of Hacken, a scenario of slow change of circumstances has stabilized. Therefore. Short comment – there are technologies for analysis of military actions. First rule in these technologies – you should not bite the propaganda.
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2. Daily inspection of offensives and counter-offensives.
The Russian offensive. The main goal at the moment – Donbass, the criterion for success – the capture of Kramatorsk. The criterion is not met. No large boiler is expected, but small ones are expected. I am writing to you about the biggest boiler:
Boiler 1 – Severodonetsk – Lisichansk – almost closed.
Number of the Ukrainian group there – 1 division.
Heavy fighting is expected, especially for Lisichansk.
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Other chops are beginning to form. From a strategic point of view, the most important of them is with Avdeevka. It’s not big, but it’s right in front of Donetsk.
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The Russians are making slow progress in the Donbass and no one denies it.
Surrender of the Azov Regiment in Mariupol. So far – over 1800 people. I expected less. It came out a whole cauldron.
You know I overestimated them and I thought they would fight to the death.
In fact, I’m in no hurry. There are over 2000 people in this boiler, 300-400 have not surrendered yet. An entire Ukrainian brigade was taken prisoner. Quite unpleasant from a psychological point of view.
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Ukrainian counter-offensive. Goal – to stop the Russian offensive in Donbass. Criterion – capture of Raisins. The criterion is not met. There are no cutlets. However, let us set a criterion for the success of this counter-offensive. It is clear – the expulsion of the Russian army from the territory of Ukraine on the territory of Russia. Right. Has this been achieved? No.
There are some villages that the Ukrainian army must conquer in order to record success for it. These are: Kazachaya Lopan, Tsupovka, Ternovaya and Staritsa. We are watching.
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It remains valid that Western arms supplies keep the Ukrainian army in an upright position for the time being. The losses are not small, however – from one-third to one-half battalion tactical group per day. The counter spins fast, which is not good. That is why the general mobilization continues.
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Conclusion – the Ukrainians fail to repel the Russian offensive in Donbass. The Russians have the advantage. It is expected that this advantage will be maintained until the end of the week and beyond.
The Ukrainians urgently need to fill the gap in the Donbass fronts, because the Russians’ strategy for small chops is starting to work. What Ukrainians are trying to do in Kharkiv does not fundamentally change the situation. The situation in Donbass can be described as unpleasant for the Ukrainian army.
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3. The propaganda war. In the warring countries, the situation is stable – the peoples are still well caught in the grip of propaganda. This scenario is not expected to change after May 24. Ukrainian propaganda has a problem. An event like 2000 betrayed captives in Mariupol can not be swept just like that under the carpet. It has bitten on the hook of Ukrainian propaganda, but even many of them are not such balaclavas to believe that this is an evacuation.
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In our country, the scenario of failed pro-Ukrainian propaganda is stable. How to fix this – tips from THAT MAN (quote from THAT MAN, day six, not Bismarck)
… The task of propaganda is not to be intelligent, but to lead to success …..
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Brief comment – the above thought explains why pro-Ukrainian propaganda in Bulgaria does not take root on Bulgarian soil. We watch attempts at intelligent performances – here a performance, there a screaming figure, from time to time a demonstration. Does this lead to success – no. Why? Because the people do not like the complex intellectual internal problems of those who are trying to promote the Ukrainian cause. The people live with great problems every day and this has hardened their character.
One, there is no plasticity of the people’s character, and second, the pro-Ukrainian performances are very poorly organized to influence him. Vitanov says this, but no one listens. You know the word I’ve been using for a long time – amateur. It led to the fact that the machine of pro-Ukrainian propaganda in Bulgaria is dirty.
Squat against Vitanov from the puddles, write negative reviews from the cafe – this is the situation. If you can – instead of squatting and write reviews against Vitanov, take out the car of pro-Ukrainian propaganda out of the mud. It is a shame to be in NATO and in the European Union and not be able to do pro-Ukrainian propaganda like the people.
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You see, I support pro-Ukrainian propagandists with intellectually proven working concepts. I hope they get married. Will they spin? We have a test – the attractor must be taken out of the pool of attracting anti-Ukrainian skepticism. If so, they are married. If not – they are not married.
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And finally, Bismarck, of course. Some are shaking with anger that I know Bismarck well. A big bang falls, it’s a lot of fun. Read Bismarck, you fools, he will show you how to watch this war.
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Here is today’s quote from him
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… An army of invaders cannot be stopped at the border by eloquence ….
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Is he right? He is right. Tens of thousands of killed, wounded and captured Ukrainian soldiers, this is what stops the Russian army’s offensive. Arms supplies to the Ukrainian army – this is what stops the offensive of the Russian army. And we must remember – if you do not have an army, nothing will help you. The croaking of the puddles in front of the Gankov Cafe and the speeches from the cafe do not stop armies of conquerors. This is the situation.
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Okay, enough for today. We are yet to see what will happen. I wish you peaceful and happy holidays, health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you
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