► Where are the nuclear disarmament agreements?
Despite the war in Ukraine, the “strategic dialogue” between Washington and Moscow is not completely interrupted. The two sides continue to exchange information on their strategic weapons on a regular basis.
The last bilateral strategic disarmament treaty between the two main world nuclear powers, the New Start treaty, concluded in 2010 between the United States and Russia, limits the arsenals of the two countries to a maximum of 1,550 warheads deployed on both sides. This is a reduction of almost 30% from the previous limit set in 2002. It also limits the number of launch platforms (ICBMs, submarines and bombers) to 700 each. The treaty was extended in January 2021, for five years.
Washington today says it will negotiate a new framework for disarmament to replace the treaty after it expires on February 4, 2026, but there is little time left before the 2024 US presidential election. A meeting of the bilateral treaty commission, scheduled in Cairo , from November 29 to December 6 was postponed indefinitely, on the initiative of Moscow.
In early August, Russia announced it was suspending planned US inspections of its military sites under the treaty, saying it was acting in response to US obstacles to similar Russian inspections of the US.
► Will Americans and Russians negotiate a new treaty?
In the United States, hawks like Franklin Miller, a former adviser to George W. Bush, believe America should increase its arsenal to 3,000-3,500 strategic warheads deployed, if possible under a negotiated treaty or, failing that, unilaterally . Others, such as Rose Gottemoeller, former Under Secretary of State for Disarmament, believe that the United States and Russia have an interest in negotiating a new treaty.
Moscow, in particular, while Washington upgrades its nuclear triad with the B-21 bomber, new Columbia-class submarines and a new ICBM system.
► What are the characteristics of the rise of nuclear power in China?
For its part, China’s nuclear arsenal is expected to more than triple by 2035, with a land-sea-air triad similar to that of Russia and the United States, notes the annual report on China’s military power, released in late November by the Pentagon. After many years of maintaining a nuclear arsenal of a few hundred warheads, Beijing should have at least 1,000 by the end of this decade. Beijing conducted more than 135 ballistic missile tests capable of carrying these warheads in 2021, as well as a hypersonic missile test in July 2021.
“By 2030, the United States will, for the first time in its history, have to face two major nuclear powers as strategic competitors and potential adversaries.points out the American Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), published in late October. This will create new constraints on stability and new challenges for deterrence, assurance, arms control and risk reduction. »
► What about the negotiations with China?
In its nuclear review, the United States says it is ready to enter into discussions with China on confidence-building measures, information sharing, risk reduction, and approaches to nuclear disarmament. But for now, China does not seem interested.
In response to the Pentagon report, Beijing denounced a ” usual tactic of Washington to find a pretext for the expansion of its nuclear arsenal. The United States must create the conditions for complete and rigorous nuclear disarmament” reducing ” basically their nuclear arsenal, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry said. Beijing will not discuss limits until Washington and Moscow reduce their arsenals to Chinese levels.
