It is not surprising that in a crisis like the current one, attention is turned to the immediate: the availability and effectiveness in the application of vaccines, infections and deaths, economic contraction, unemployment, the fall in investment and more. The focus on now, although to a certain extent inevitable, makes it difficult to envision the future to be built for Mexico in a world that changes at great speed and to recognize that what we do or do not do now will be decisive for future opportunities and development.
The global progress in critical aspects for development in recent decades is unprecedented in history, although enormous lags still persist. Take the case of extreme poverty as an example: more than 40% of the world’s population was in this condition in 1980 but by 2015 it was 10% (using the international measure of income below $ 1.90 a day per person). The end of extreme poverty in the world was considered feasible and we were on the right track to achieve this goal of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, but the pandemic and the economic crisis reversed the trend. The World Bank estimates that 150 million people joined the ranks of extreme poverty in 2020. In turn, the United Nations Development Program estimates that for the first time since 1990 when it began to calculate the Human Development Index, in 2020 the index was reduced worldwide. The lesson is hard: advances in human development take years, but the gains made can be destroyed in a short time.
Mexico has also presented improvements in recent decades in almost all relevant indicators, while acknowledging that we still face great challenges and lags and that we would like to advance faster. This is shown by the comparison between the last three Population and Housing Censuses or the evolution of the deficiencies that Coneval uses to measure poverty between 2008 and 2018 (latest year available). While in 2008, for example, 38.4% of the population had a lack of access to health services, in 2018 it was already less than half: 16.2%, thanks to Seguro Popular. Although at a slower rate of advance, there were also improvements in the other dimensions in that period. The population with a lack of quality and housing space went from 17.7% to 11.1% and those with an educational gap from 21.9% to 16.9%. The double crisis and the few or inadequate measures to protect the most vulnerable and the economy, threaten to lose many of these advances. The official measurement of poverty by Coneval will not be available until the summer, but Coneval itself and other institutions such as Cepal point to a significant increase in poverty in Mexico, among the largest in Latin America.
The drop in income, derived from unemployment or interruptions in economic activity due to the pandemic, and the lack of sufficient and adequate support, pushed many families to make decisions with adverse and long-term consequences for their development. Mexicanos Primero estimates that 6 million students could drop out of school and although it is expected to be temporary, school dropout often ends up being permanent. For many of those who did not drop out of education, even passing the courses, the scenario is not very promising in terms of educational achievement. If online schooling presents challenges, particularly without the appropriate infrastructure and content, TV schooling is significantly worse. In health we have a similar story. The pandemic caused great stress on a health system already undergoing reform due to the elimination of Seguro Popular and its replacement by Insabi. Transforming hospitals and health centers to treat Covid cases without ensuring effective continuity in the treatment of other conditions for thousands of people, as well as financial and public policy decisions that affected the availability of vaccines and drugs for certain conditions, will have consequences. future in the health of Mexicans. We could also talk about the fall in public and private investment, which not only reduces the potential for economic growth but will also maintain the lags in basic infrastructure.
It is still time to reconsider the priorities in public actions and propose the future that is expected for Mexicans in terms of development. It is imperative due to current conditions and due to the window of opportunity that is closing for us due to the end of the demographic bonus. There is no clear vision of the future in social or economic policy. What is observed is a preference for clientelistic policies and the apparent conformity with the sugar mill and other tools that evoke the past, in a world that is leaving us behind.
Gustavo Merino Juárez is a Development Specialist. Professor at the School of Government and Public Transformation of the Tecnológico de Monterrey
–
