American farmers want something from President-elect Donald Trump that his trade policies are unlikely to get them: greater market access to China, the top soybean importer.
Trump’s Republican Party enjoys broad support across America’s farm belt, where he won the majority of states in Tuesday’s election. Farmers tend to support him even though the sector was one of the most affected during the trade war between the United States and China that Trump waged during his first government.
China imposed tariffs on imports of American agricultural products, in retaliation for those Trump imposed on a wide range of its products. US soybean exports to China have never recovered; In fact, China has sharply cut its dependence on American farms since the 2018 trade war.
Farmers and two potential contenders for Trump’s agriculture secretary job say they want his administration to focus on boosting U.S. exports and trade deals to help revitalize the sector.
“We really have to go out and represent American products and make sure we get some sales on the books,” said Kip Tom, an Indiana corn and soybean farmer who served as ambassador to the United Nations food agency during the Trump’s first term.
But Trump is threatening new tariffs on Chinese imports, and the Asian country is likely to respond. That would lead to less access to China’s agricultural import market. Trump is also likely to impose tariffs on imports from other countries that farmers want to sell to.
Trump, who defeated Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election, promised to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and at least a 10% levy on all other imports in his second term.
“I think it’s terribly naive for anyone to think that the election of Trump and the Republican Party will be positive for agriculture,” said Jay O’Neil, a grain industry consultant and economist.
A new round of trade wars would come at a difficult time. U.S. corn and soybean prices fell this year to 2020 lows under pressure from massive harvests and intense competition for global export sales from rival supplier Brazil, hitting the U.S. farm economy hard and reduced demand for tractors, combines and other agricultural equipment from companies such as Deere & Co.
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Another trade war with China could cost farmers up to $5.9 billion
According to the United States Department of Agriculture, the country is expected to face a record agricultural trade deficit of $42.5 billion in 2025.
U.S. soybean exports to China fell to about 26.4 million metric tons last year, from 36.1 million in 2016 and 31.7 million in 2017, before the latest trade war, the agency said.
Beijing failed to meet U.S. agricultural purchase obligations under a 2020 trade deal signed with Trump to end the trade war, according to the Census Bureau.
Still, farmers said they believe a new dispute with Beijing would be short-lived and less economically painful.
“It won’t be nearly as long as the first time because they know it’s serious,” said Texas Agriculture Secretary Sid Miller, who worked for the Trump campaign.
Miller and Tom are considered contenders to be USDA secretary.
The first Trump administration kept farmers on its side with generous subsidies to make up for lost U.S. sales to China due to the trade war. Soybean farmers received $5.4 billion more in aid than they lost from the price shock, according to a University of California-Davis study.
Another trade war could cost soybean farmers between $3.6 billion and $5.9 billion in annual production value, depending on how the dispute plays out, according to an October study from the National Corn Growers Association and the American Corn Growers Association. Soy.
In the case of corn, Brazil surpassed the United States as China’s main supplier in 2023, just a year after Beijing approved purchases from the South American agricultural power.
“We’ve let Brazil and Argentina and Australia and New Zealand and everyone else beat us,” Miller said. “We have to reverse that trend.”
U.S. soybean exports to China were down 13% from a year ago through September, and corn exports plunged 71%, according to USDA data.
These declines worry Dave Kestel, a corn and soybean farmer in Manhattan, Illinois, who used a plow to write “Trump” in giant letters in a crop field before the election.
Still, a trade battle with China could ultimately benefit American workers, despite some temporary hiccups, he said.
“People on the other side are saying, ‘Oh my God, he’s going to impose these tariffs,’” said Kestel, who voted for Trump. “It’s about bringing businesses back here.”
With information from Reuters
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