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Although the government has introduced’special real estate measures’ (2 and 4 measures) that contain plans to supply 323,000 households in Seoul by 2025, it is expected that it will be difficult to break the rise in apartment prices. The planned metropolitan express railway (GTX) station and apartments in the Gangnam area of Seoul are expected to lead the market in the first half. This is the result of a survey of 50 real estate experts about’real estate market outlook and investment strategy after the 2nd and 4th measures’.
When asked about the forecast of the nationwide apartment sale price in the first half of the year, 40% of the respondents answered ‘1~2% increase’. Adding ‘3-4% increase’ (28%) and ‘5% or more increase’ (8%) means that 76% of respondents expected an increase in house prices. Ahn Myung-sook, head of Woori Bank’s Investment Support Center, predicted that “a new investment direction has been determined starting from the Lunar New Year holiday,” and “there are many variables until the 2nd and 4th measures lead to supply.
96% of respondents predicted that the total price will increase in the first half of the year due to the enforcement of the new lease protection law, shortage of supply, and increase in standby demand for pre-subscription in the third new city.
In this survey,’reconstruction and redevelopment projects’ (36%) were ranked as the most promising investment products, beating’station area villas where public redevelopment is possible’ (24%) and’a new apartment for the third year of occupancy’ (20%). There were many opinions that the promising areas for investment were’Gyeonggi areas such as Goyang, where GTX traffic is expected’ (36%) and’Gangnam 4-gu, Seoul’ (26%). Experts advised that homeless people look for increasing public sales and special supplies with reduced qualification requirements.
76% of “House Prices Rise”… Maximum variable measures 2 and 4
Survey of 50 experts
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Real estate experts cited ‘2·4 real estate measures’ as the biggest variable in the real estate market this year. It is a policy to expand urban supply by supplying 323,000 households in Seoul alone. However, there is a lot of uncertainty as it is unclear whether the key is to participate in the private sector. It is observed that the housing market may become more unstable if the government’s 25th measure fails to play its role.
As a result of asking 50 real estate experts about the impact of the second and fourth measures on the market, 72% of the Korea Economic Daily said that it is effective in the mid- to long-term, but the short-term effect is limited. This measure focused not on the’actual supply volume’ until 2025, but on’securing the site’. Experts agreed that it would take at least three more years to actually move in. This means that the effectiveness of the countermeasure is difficult to appear immediately. Then, 10% of the responses were’will be effective depending on the region’ and’will further boost the increase in house prices’.
Among the 2·4 countermeasures, 28% of experts cited’designation of a new public housing site’ in the questionnaire that would have a positive effect on market stability. Through this measure, the government plans to supply a total of 263,000 households in new residential areas across the country. It exceeds the supply of the 3rd new city (173,000 households). After final consultation with local governments is completed, presentations will be made two to three times in the first half of this year. Siheung, Gwangmyeong, Gyeonggi and Gambuk, Hanam are considered candidates. This was followed by’high-density development such as low-rise residential areas in the station area’ (26%), and’expanding sales volume and subscription opportunities for people in their 30s and 40s’ (20%).
Regarding the limitations of the 2nd and 4th measures and points to be supplemented, 42% of the respondents chose the “public-oriented measures that do not include activation of private maintenance projects.” In particular, experts point out that there is a lot of antipathy for public-led development. Public redevelopment and reconstruction that the government previously promoted is also in a state of poor participation.
Woo Byung-tak, head of the Real Estate Investment Advisory Center of Shinhan Bank, said, “It was suggested to increase the floor area ratio and exempt from the reconstruction excess profit redemption system to revitalize public-led development, but it is not known whether it will actually serve as an incentive.” Seems to keep it.” There were also many opinions that’not enough to calm the short-term market overheating’ (28%).
Controversy over constitution, such as infringement of property rights, is also a variable. The government decided to liquidate the real estate, such as houses purchased after the announcement date (4th), in cash without giving priority to apartment supply (occupancy rights) even if public-led development is conducted. Cash settlement means receiving compensation at an appraisal price lower than the market price. Dae-Jung Kwon, a professor at the Department of Real Estate at Myongji University, was concerned that “it is highly unconstitutional, such as infringement of property rights, in that even buyers for the purpose of living are subject to cash liquidation.” Regarding this, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said, “While preparing countermeasures, it went through legal review and decided that it was not unconstitutional.”
Reporter Lee Yoo-jung/Jang Hyun-ju [email protected]
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