Elections to the German Bundestag will be held on Sunday 26 September.
There are at least 598 seats in the Bundestag, distributed according to the number of eligible voters in the states. 299 members are elected directly from single-member constituencies, corresponding to the electoral system in the United States and the United Kingdom. 299 members are elected with party lists in the states, corresponding to the Norwegian system. In addition, two types of equalization mandates are awarded. With 111 such mandates, today’s the Bundestag is the largest to date. Since 1999, the German National Assembly has been housed in the old Riksdag building which was destroyed in a fire in 1933. The Bundestag elects the Prime Minister, who has the title Bundeskanzler (Federal Chancellor), on the proposal of the President (currently Frank-Walter Steinmeier). The election requires an absolute majority, ie a majority among all members, not just those who turn up or vote. Angela Merkel is Germany’s first female prime minister, but resigns after almost 16 years. It is the first time since World War II that a sitting prime minister is not seeking re-election. The states of Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will also hold elections on 26 September.
Source: Wikipedia , NTB
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TV DEBATE: Olaf Scholz (left) gives a fist bump to Armin Laschet from CDU / CSU. The Greens’ Annalena Baerbock in the middle. Photo: MICHAEL KAPPELER / POOL Flirted after the flood
So what mistakes have the other two chancellor candidates, Armin Laschet from Angela Merkel’s own CDU / CSU and the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock made?
The former was, for example, caught by TV cameras grinning in the background while the country’s president honored the victims of the great flood in the west of the country in July, while the Greens’ candidate, among other things, is said to have cheated with his own CV.
In such a company, the Germans seem to prefer a kind of Merkel cloning.
– He is the one who is most like her as a type. He has also made a point of it himself. The Germans are not necessarily looking for a charismatic leader. They like stability and predictability, says Nesje Vestli.
Features “Mother Merkel” has been known for the past 16 years.
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BEFORE AND MAYBE LATER: A picture from 2019 shows outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel laughing at something, while Olaf Scholz is serious. Photo: ODD ANDERSEN / AFP Was led by
Olaf Scholz has a long career in German politics . From Mayor of Hamburg to now Minister of Finance and Vice Chancellor of Angela Merkel’s coalition government. And now he can take the step all the way to the top. Few people believed when the SPD was down to 14-15 percent in the polls this summer. Far behind both the CDU / CSU and the Greens.
– Many actually laughed when the party ran with its own chancellor candidate, so regardless of whether Scholz wins or not, it has been an enormous journey, says the professor in Østfold.
In the latest polls, Scholz and co are around 25 percent, 3-4-5 percentage points ahead of Merkel’s own party and around 10 ahead of the Greens.
– It is still possible to move some votes. I do not think Scholz and the SPD feel confident that they will win, says Nesje Vestli.
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GERMANY EXPERT: Professor Elin-Sofie Nesje Vestli. Photo: Østfold University College New situation
Regardless of who gets the most votes from the two traditional governing parties in Germany , the period after the election can be at least as exciting as the election campaign. For the first time since World War II, after all the sun marks, three more parties are needed to form a majority government.
And there is always a majority government in Germany . Anything else is seen as unthinkable.
The current government consists of the two major parties. Which can be compared to the Conservatives and the Labor Party forming a government together in Norway. But this time they do not get enough votes for the majority. Thus, three more parties are needed.
– This is a new and unfamiliar situation for the Germans. There are many possible coalitions, says the professor.
She lists the “Traffic Light Coalition”, the “Jamaica Coalition” and the “Kenya Coalition”. All named after the parties’ color constellations.
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THE THREE CANDIDATES: The Greens’ Annalena Baerbock, SPDs Olaf Scholz and Armin Laschet from CDU / CSU are the three chancellor candidates in Germany. Photo: FILIP SINGER / EPA Can become a kingmaker
The “traffic light coalition” is perhaps the most likely if the opinion polls succeed. Then the Social Democrats in the SPD will invite the Greens and the German Free Democrats (FDP), which has a support of around 11 percent, into government.
– But since two parties cannot get a majority, it is not necessarily the case that it is the largest party that will lead the negotiations, Nesje Vestli explains.
And here comes the “Jamaica Coalition”. It is a government consisting of the CDU / CSU, the Greens and the FDP. The latter two can thus end up in government almost regardless. It gives the FDP in particular a lot of power.
– Many now say that it is they who will now choose the “king” in Germany .
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NEW FEDERAL CHANCELLOR? The chances are good that Olaf Scholz will have to start demanding government negotiations next week with the goal of becoming Germany’s new leader. Photo: JOHN MACDOUGALL / AFP – Had envied Støre
The “Kenya Coalition”, which consists of all three major parties, is considered less likely. Few believe the Greens want to join a government where they are the youngest brother.
What is absolutely certain is that there will be tough negotiations no matter which coalition you try.
Jonas Gahr Støre’s challenges in getting SV and the Center Party to cooperate can quickly fade in relationships.
– It’s going to take time. There is no doubt about that. I think Olaf Scholz had envied Støre on Hurdalssjøen, the Germany expert concludes.
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