Departmental elections in the Hérault: the point two months before the ballot

The election confirmed, the formations refine their strategy and the puzzle takes shape. First fluoroscopy of an election where the National Rally will want to challenge socialist hegemony.

1. Can the majority change?

It would take a tsunami. With 14 out of 25 cantons in their pocket, the Socialists and their allies have a comfortable lead over a fragmented and divided opposition. Certainly, some territories can escape them in Cazouls, Lunel, Sète, Frontignan… Certainly, the stated ambitions of the National Gathering, the national context and the risk of very strong abstention are likely to produce some effects in the ballot box. But the PS can hope to compensate for any losses by recovering the Montpellier cantons abandoned by the “Saurélie” and thus keep a few seats in advance.

2. Can Mesquida be worried?

Kléber Mesquida no longer has to prove his strong anchoring. Mayor of Creissan for 18 years (1977-1995), of Saint-Pons-de-Thomières for 17 (1995 to 2012), he has been elected in his canton since… 1994! The re-election of the outgoing president, candidate for his own succession, is it for all that acquired on its grounds? If he had flown over the 2008 election against the Frontist Philippe Delmotte (83% – 17%), this had not been the case in 2015 when the duel of the Mesquida / Pons-Delmotte / Terral pairs had delivered a much more verdict. tight: 59% to 41%.

This time, Mesquida will not find Delmotte, retired in Labastide-Rouairoux, on his way. But there will be an RN doublet. The danger could also have come from his own camp if Francis Cros, general councilor from 1992 to 2015 in the canton of La Salvetat-sur-Agout, where he is mayor, had decided to go to the front. This will not be the case.

3. Montpellier, what recomposition?

In the unanimous opinion, the five cantons of Montpellier will be subject to a total redistribution of the cards. Bolstered by Philippe Saurel’s victory in Montpellier, the four outgoing pairs now appear weakened and in dispersed order. “Everyone is free, we are not a political party”, blows the former mayor. “I’m thinking, I haven’t made a decision”, admits Michèle Dray-Fitoussi, president of the former group of elected officials called “ saurelians ”. The timeliness of an application is also measured by the financial risks taken by the applicants.

Below 5% of votes cast, those concerned find themselves deprived of a reimbursement of their campaign expenses. An argument which can make one think before a poll where the participation promises to be low and the candidatures finally quite numerous, carried by the rebellious France or the movement “We are”.

4. Greens: the ambition to have a group

This is the corollary of the previous point. The activists of Europe Ecology-The Greens would see themselves converting their electoral successes, particularly in Montpellier where they have since been associated with the management of the City led by Mickaël Delafosse. “We get along and it works pretty well, it’s a real step forward”, comments a green elected official. Subject to an internal agreement – which is not won because differences persist – alliances with the PS are possible in Montpellier as well as joint candidacies in Lunel or Mauguio. The ambition is to form a green group (6 elected), which would be a first for the Department. “Having a group, in the decisions, that weighs”, highlights an EELV framework.

5. Which cantons can switch?

In 2015, the case had played out in a pocket square in five cantons. For 333 voices in Lattes, 270 in Saint-Gély-du-Fesc, 208 in Castelnau-le-Lez, 112 in Lunel and… 43 in Cazouls, the duets Meunier / Weber, Barral / Vignon, Cristol / Fabre, Calvat / Nurit and Reboul / Vidal had won the bet. Where they present themselves, facing a tandem probably presented by the RN in Cazouls, on the right in Castelnau, the outgoing candidates will have to fight to be re-elected. Where they do not represent themselves (Claude Barral and Bernadette Vignon in Lunel) or one has gone under other skies (Guillaume Fabre in Saint-Gély), everything has to be reconstructed.