Demographic Preferences and Electoral Shifts: A Deep Dive into the Underlying Dynamics of Elections

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Major shifts are mainly cosmetic

Even if major shifts occur in election results, as we saw again on March 15, the underlying electoral shifts are smaller than one might think. But then we should not look at each party separately, but at blocks of voters in the electorate. They have a preference for more than one party, but during the elections they can only choose one of them.

This article gives an impression of those blocks and their preferences. It provides more insight into the electoral relations and within what margins shifts in the electorate can occur.

Through a recently conducted survey among more than 5,000 respondents via Peil.nl, we map this out for the largest political blocs.

This is done by indicating for a number of (possible) parties how likely it is that people will vote for them if there were now parliamentary elections. The charts that follow show numbers of those who said they would vote for sure or give that party/group a high or fairly high chance of getting a vote. It is deposited for a range of characteristics.

We have not done this for all possible parties or all possible combinations, but for the sake of clarity, we have seven (GroenLinks+PvdA, D66, CDA, Lijst Omtzigt, VVD, BBB and PVV). Due to the way the question is asked, it is quite possible that a respondent gives several parties/groups a (fairly) high chance. Plus there are also voters who don’t give any of these groups a chance. (That’s less than 25%) and never-turning voters (an estimated 10%).

There is therefore no question of being able to add up the voting probability figures of the various parties/groups. The graphs show, for example, that many people give both BBB and Lijst Omtzigt a (fairly) high chance of getting a vote. How that works out in an election then depends very much on the situation at that moment and the run-up to those elections.

By comparing the results against a large number of characteristics, a good insight can be given into the position of the various political parties/groups in relation to the electorate. And within what margins shifts in the electorate can occur.

Total figures

These are the total figures for the measured 7 parties/groups. A List Omtzigt is indicated by 29% of voters as a party that gives them a (fairly) high chance of getting a vote. BBB scores 25%. VVD, GroenLinks+PvdA, and PVV each score 15%, D66 10% and CDA only 6%.

The following graph shows the relationship between the choices for these 7 parties/groups of parties.

With figures above 10%, there is therefore fierce competition between those parties.

• BBB and Lijst Omzigt have a large overlap. Of those who give BBB a (fairly) big chance, 65% also give Lijst Omzigt a (fairly) big chance and the other way around is 48%.
• PVV also has great competition with BBB and Lijst Omzigt. But it seems that PVV is more affected by the other two than the other way around.
• Between GroenLinks+PvdA and D66 we also see fairly high values ​​with D66 now in an unfavorable position compared to GroenLinks + PvdA.
• It is clear to see that the position of CDA and VVD is electorally difficult. Strong competition from BBB and Lijst Omzigt, but significantly less the other way around. VVD seems to be moving in the direction of PvdA and CDA.

Demographics

We see significant differences in preferences with regard to a number of demographic characteristics.

Age

• GroenLinks+PvdA clearly scores better in the age group under 35 than in the other age groups (25% against 8% in the group between 55 and 64).
• List Omtzigt does better among the elderly than among the young (but among the group under 35 it is still as large as GroenLinks+PvdA.)
• BBB does better among the age groups between 35 and 65 than among the young and the elderly.
• CDA is actually doing poorly across the board. Also among the elderly, where they did very well 15 years ago.

Income

• Both VVD and D66 clearly do better with higher incomes than with lower incomes.
• The average income at the Lijst Omzigt is somewhat lower than at BBB.
• PVV has the center of gravity among the lowest incomes

Educational attainment

The differences by education are significant:

• BBB, Lijst Omtzigt and PVV do significantly better among those with a low level of education than among those with a high level of education.
• With D66 and GroenLinks+PvdA it is the other way around.

Efficacy

This graph shows the differences according to the type of activity of the respondent.

• BBB, VVD and Lijst-Omtzigt are the parties for entrepreneurs
• Among the self-employed, the PVV is also added.
• There is a big difference between the choices of retirees and students. The first group chooses List Omzigt and BBB the most. The second group GroenLinks+PvdA and D66.

Political features

Voted at TK2021

This graph shows the figures of the voters in the 2021 parliamentary elections. It clearly shows how strongly CDA and D66 have fallen back among their own voters from 2021. It can also be seen that the combination GroenLinks+PvdA is doing better among the voters of GroenLinks from 2021 than with that of the PvdA of the time.

Voted at PS2023

In this overview we see different parties than in the overview of TK2021. This is partly because the number of respondents from those parties is larger than from 2021.

Left-right scale

The left-right scale still shows large differences in results. It can be seen that the List Omtzigt is most spread over left and right.

Opportunity indicator

The two questions of the opportunities indicators also show clear differences whether “people are concerned about the financial future or not” and whether “people think that in recent years they have seen more opportunities or threats”.

Media

Finally, we have an overview of the newspaper that people read regularly. It is clear that there is a big difference between these seven mediums:

• Telegraph: BBB, List Omtzigt, VVD and PVV
• AD/Regional: List Omtzigt, BBB and VVD
• De Volkskrant: GroenLinks+PvdA, D66 and Lijst Omtzigt
• NRC: GroenLinks+PvdA, D66, VVD, List Omtzigt
• Parool: GroenLinks+PvdA, D66, Lijst Omtzigt and VVD
• Trouw: GroenLinks+PvdA, Lijst Omtzigt and D66 (the low score of the CDA is striking)
• FD: D66, List Omtzigt and VVD

It is remarkable that among these media D66, which scores 10% throughout the Netherlands, of the 7 media scores well above that value. At GroenLinks+PvdA we also see high scores in four of the seven media. On the other hand, we see that BBB scores well below the national figures for five of the seven titles. List Omtzigt is everywhere in the first three.

Not just polarization

Although there is certainly polarization for GroenLinks+PvdA+D66 on the one hand and the PVV on the other on most characteristics, it is striking that Lijst Omtzigt and BBB have that much less. They have strong supporters in most of the groups shown in this overview.

In addition, it is also clearly visible that the VVD seems to be going the same way as PvdA and CDA. The appeal of that party has decreased considerably and the question is what will remain if Rutte is no longer a party leader.

This does not predict the actual result of the next election. Realize that these 7 parties/groups already score 115% together. And that the other parties, which are not included in the study, also score at least 35% together. This means that in the elections it will mainly be about voters who give your party a (fairly) good chance to convert into a real vote and another possible party who is also given a good chance not to vote.

Crucial in the next elections will of course be what Pieter Omtzigt will do. Whether or not he participates in the elections and in what way will have a major impact on the outcome.